MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Monday (4/29)
Seven of the top 10 teams in home runs are in action during Major League Baseball’s 12-game slate on Monday, April 29. Several stars will aim to display their power for the fans in attendance. Here’s a look at three players worth backing to create a spark with a dinger.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+240)
Over the weekend, the New York Yankees put on an offensive clinic in their series versus the Milwaukee Brewers. Manager Aaron Boone’s squad exploded for 36 runs on 43 hits (10 home runs) across three games. Sluggers Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo were at the forefront of the attack as they each launched a ball over the fence on Saturday and Sunday. Backing a hot hitter to stay hot is never a bad strategy to hang your hat on.
I am betting on Judge over Rizzo because of Baltimore starter Grayson Rodriguez’s splits. He has been far less impactful against right-handed batters. The 24-year-old is allowing a slugging percentage of .576 to go with three home runs in 65 showdowns versus a righty at the plate in 2024. Don’t pay much attention to the pushed-back left-field wall here, either. Judge has homered five times in nine games played at Oriole Park at Camden Yards since that change was made.
Ryan Mountcastle (+650)
Let’s stick to the game in Baltimore because what first baseman Ryan Mountcastle is doing shouldn’t be overlooked. He has also hit a home run in each of his last two games. He took a pitch from Oakland’s JP Sears deep to left on Saturday and smashed one to center off Paul Blackburn on Sunday. Up next is a matchup with New York’s Clarke Schmidt, who hasn’t excelled against Mountcastle in the past.
Mountcastle is slashing .333/.427/.667 across 11 plate appearances versus Schmidt. Not only that, but Mountcastle thrives most when he has the support of a friendly crowd behind him. His career slugging percentage jumps from .430 on the road to .487 at home as 58.5% of his home runs have been hit at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Baltimore leads the majors in home runs (44) for a reason. The entire lineup is playing on a different level right now.
Brandon Marsh (+450)
Brandon Marsh is an intriguing option on Monday for a few reasons. The Philadelphia outfielder has crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a slash line of .323/.362/.646 with six home runs and 15 RBI in 69 plate appearances. That’s worth pointing out since Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Angels on Monday. The right-hander has logged a disappointing 7.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in five starts this campaign.
To go even further, Canning has especially faltered against left-handed hitters. He is giving up a slash line of .333/.371/.587 and has allowed five home runs in 70 meetings with a lefty batter. Of course, this will also be Marsh’s first time back at Angel Stadium since the organization traded him away in August of 2022. It’s safe to say his adrenaline will be running high. Take a stab at a healthy MLB home run payout at these odds.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: