MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (10/5)
We’ve got four Game 1 matchups in the Divisional Series today. I’ve looked through each matchup and picked my favorite three home run props for today’s slate of games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+550)
Over the last 30 days, Kerry Carpenter has smoked a .316 ISO and wOBA of .389 against his last 62 righties. The left-handed slugger is one of the many reasons why the Tigers find themselves playing baseball in October. He’s only struck out 17.7% of the time over the last month against righties and has hit 38.3% of fly balls with 53.2% of hard contact over the previous month against righties.
Additionally, he’s added a 19.1% barrel percentage against his last 62 righties and has limited ground balls to 34% against righties in the previous month.
Today, he’ll battle Tanner Bibee of the Guardians. Bibee has allowed a .239 ISO and wOBA of .353 to his last 52 lefties. He’s also allowed a 9.1% barrel percentage and more than 30% of fly balls to his previous 52 lefties. Carpenter has a real chance to go yard today.
Manny Machado Home Run (+475)
I’m ready to pick on Yoshinobu Yamamoto. After all, the Japanese rookie has allowed his last 32 righties to hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .402 with only 31.8% of ground balls and 50% of line drives. Yamamoto has also allowed 54.5% of hard contact and a 22.7% barrel percentage to righties in the last month.
Additionally, Yamamoto’s presence in the spotlight could be an issue. It’ll be his first time pitching in the MLB Playoffs, so that’s also something to monitor.
That said, Machado has smashed a .253 ISO and wOBA of .374 against his last 80 righties. He’s also hit 63.6% of hard contact with a 16.4% barrel percentage in the previous month against righties. Beyond that, he’s added nearly 31% of fly balls.
When Machado is hitting his best, the Padres play their best. Don’t count out the Padres, and certainly don’t count out Machado with this matchup.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+380)
The other righty in the San Diego lineup is Fernando Tatis Jr. Tatis, who has put up even better stats than Machado as a right-hander against other righties. He’s smashed a .355 ISO and wOBA of .414 against his last 80 righties and has struck out only 22.5% of the time in the previous 30 days against righties.
Tatis Jr. has also hit 25.9% of fly balls and has earned a team-best 63.8% hard contact rate against righties in the last 30 days. He’s also hit a 17.2% barrel percentage, which leads the Padres over the previous month against righties, too.
Therefore, consider Tatis Jr. to launch one against Yamamoto tonight. Machado and Tatis Jr. have really good matchups against a rookie right-hander who hasn’t quite figured it out against righties over the last couple of starts.