The 2025 MLB season is underway. It's great to have the sun shining and baseball to bet on again. Saturday's slate features 15 games with every team in action. Let’s dive into the top MLB home run picks and predictions for Saturday, March 29th.
Betting on specific players to hit a home run is an exciting way to bet on baseball, and the wins are some of the biggest. The plus-money odds can provide larger payouts that make for some great betting. As a friendly reminder, shop around for the best odds because home run odds differ widely across sportsbooks. Here are some of my favorite players to hit a home run in today's games.
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Saturday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 | Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+450)
No player has seen Dean Kremer more on the Blue Jays than Vladimir Guerrero Jr. In 28 at-bats, he's gone deep off Kremer five times with two doubles and 10 hits. Guerrero has started the season well with a two-hit game yesterday and has a higher OPS at home for his normal splits.
Kremer allowed more home runs at home than on the road last year, but he's still susceptible to the deep ball with 1.25 HR/9 allowed last season. Guerrero batting second gives him four or five chances total and perhaps three against Kremer. I expected these odds to be shorter, considering the history and how Guerrero had 30 long balls a year ago in one of his best seasons. This is an easy first home run bet of the season to make for me.
Anthony Volpe (+750)
This is a bit of a long stretch, despite having already homered once this season. Anthony Volpe doesn't have any experience against Nestor Cortes, but they did overlap for three years as teammates, so Yankees players know Cortes' pitching.
Paul Goldschmidt has seen him, but his and Aaron Judge's odds are too short. Cortes has struggled against righties and allowed much more favorable splits to that side of the plate over his career. Volpe's OPS vs. lefties is 60 points higher, with 19 home runs versus 15 home runs home and away. It's the longer of odds for a home run, but I still see it as value for Volpe’s true chances of going deep today.
Lars Nootbaar (+560)
Finally, for your third option, we have Lars Nootbaar. He started the season strong with a long ball and has hit over double-digit home runs in each of the past three seasons. He's only seen Joe Ryan once and went deep against him, totalling two hits on three at-bats.
Ryan is not exactly a big home run-allowing pitcher, but he still allowed 1.27 HR/9 a year ago. He also let up a higher OPS on the road. Nootbaar leading off gives him extra opportunities against the Twins' bullpen.
