MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/20)
What values are out there across the Majors today for players to go yard?
Let’s hit some dingers with our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Saturday, April 20.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Mike Trout (+285)
Mike Trout is Mike Trout! I’m not trying to overthink this one; he is one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Now that Trout is finally healthy, he looks like the former MVP. He leads the MLB in HRs and ISO but was 0-4 yesterday, so this is a nice bounce-back spot for the three-time MVP.
Reds starter Graham Ashcraft has given up three HRs in three starts in 2024. In 2023, Ashcraft had an HR/9 of 1.42, the 19th highest among pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched.
With the wind blowing out to left field, this is setting up nicely for Trout. Facing a bad pitcher in a great hitter’s park with wind blowing is a perfect combination - unlike pineapple on pizza!
Trea Turner (+370), Bryce Harper (+330) & Brandon Marsh (+800)
Last season, this Phillies team finished in the top 10 in almost every offensive category. They have gotten off to a slow start this season, but I think we will see a similar finish. They scored seven runs last night, thanks to two Alec Bohm home runs, and I think we’ll see similar run production today, but with the help of other hitters.
The White Sox’s pitching has been brutal this year. They rank 26th in team ERA (4.57) and have the third-highest HR/9 (1.47). Starter Michael Soroka has yet to help their case. He is 0-2 with a 6.98 ERA and has allowed a HR in all four starts.
Believe it or not, Brandon Marsh leads this Phillies team in HRs (four) and ISO (.326) against right-handed pitchers. Bryce Harper is right behind at three HRs and an ISO of .250.
Kyle Schwarber is also a good choice, but with his odds, I don’t see much value; I like taking a shot with Trea Turner over Schwarber.
Juan Soto (+320)
The Rays will be throwing out Zach Eflin this afternoon, and I strictly like this matchup for Juan Soto because of familiarity. Both of these players competed in the NL East for some time, and Soto has had success against Eflin in his career, batting .440 with two doubles and two home runs in 25 at-bats.