We have a massive 15-game MLB slate today. Below are my favorite home run prop bets for the day.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ryan Mountcastle (+500) & Adley Rutschman (+700)
Today’s matchup with Bailey Falter of the Pirates sets up nicely for the O’s. In 2023, Falter had an HR/9 of 1.9, the fourth-highest among today’s starters and the 18th-highest among starters last season.
Falter primarily uses three pitches: fastball, slider and cutter. Ryan Mountcastle has an ISO over .260 against all three. The O’s first baseman also leads the team in HR/FB% (30%), with Adley Rutschman third at 15%.
Both players are off to a terrific start. Mountcastle is batting .280 with seven hits, three doubles and one home run. Rutschman leads the team with a .346 average but is still looking for his first long ball of the season.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+450) & Will Benson (+350)
This Cincinnati Reds team has such a high ceiling that you could make a case for taking at least one Reds player every day to hit a home run. The downside is that they are so young and inexperienced, which results in a lot of strikeouts.
But on a positive note, when they have a great matchup and an advantage, they can hit the ball and score with the best of them.
Today, I believe there is one of those matchups between Reds hitters and Mets starter Luis Severino. With Severino on the mound, many baseballs could leave Great American Ball Park.
The 30-year-old right-hander started 18 games for the Yankees while allowing a league-high 2.32 HR/9.
Since last season, Severino has allowed six home runs in his last six games, including one this season.
When facing left-handed hitters, Severino relies on his fastball, throwing it nearly 50% of the time. This is not a big deal if you have pinpoint accuracy, which Severino lacks. The problem with Severino is that he tends to leave pitches up in the zone, which is where Will Benson and Christian Encarnacion-Strand can take advantage.
When pitchers are left in the middle or upper zone, no one is better on the team than Encarnacion-Strand and Benson. They lead the team in barrels per plate appearance and home runs per plate appearance.
Matt Olson (+350)
The Braves are off to a lackluster start to the season. Finally getting out of cold weather may help. We saw the lineup come to life late last night, scoring four of their six runs after the eighth inning.
Olson went 2-for-4 with one double and a home run in last night’s win. I am looking for another big game for him against Brandon Pfaadt.
Despite having an excellent second of the season, Pfaadt is susceptible to the long ball. The young right-hander primarily uses a three-pitch mix against left-handed batters: fastball, changeup and sweeper. No one is better at attacking those pitchers than Matt Olson. Olson leads the team in ISO against all three pitches (.324, .353, .462), so look for another big game from the big first baseman.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:
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