MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/18)
Another day, another opportunity for some MLB player prop bet picks! We’ll look for those players that can provide a big payout with one swing. That’s right, the MLB home run prop bet. Let’s dive into our top MLB home run prop bet picks for Saturday’s slate of games.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks
Juan Soto +350 & Giancarlo Stanton +350 & Aaron Judge +220
Quietly, the Yankees are one of the hottest teams in baseball. They have won 8 of their last 10 and have the American League’s highest run differential (+69). They get another great matchup against a sorry White Sox pitching staff.
Brad Keller is on the mound for Chicago. This season, Keller has a 4.21xFIP with a K-rate of 16%, not a deadly combination, to say the least. When throwing to right-handed batters, Keller relies mainly on his fastball and slider. Aaron Judge has an ISO of over .200 against both pitches, including an ISO of .402 against the four-seamer. Stanton’s numbers are as high as Judge’s, but his .246 ISO against a fastball and .183 against the slider can’t be ignored.
Early in the 2024 season, lefties have struggled against Keller, batting .077 with an identical SLG% of .077. Juan Soto isn’t your average lefty; he is third on the team in ISO (.224) and HRs (7), trailing only Stanton and Judge.
When Brad Keller pitches to an LHH, they see a four-seam fastball 40% of the time. Soto’s ISO of .324 against the fastball is the highest against any single pitch.
The downside of honing in on Keller is over his four starts; he is averaging just over 3 IPs per start, so these guys at the top of the lineup may only see him once or twice if they are lucky. But do not worry because the White Sox bullpen is just as bad.
Chicago’s bullpen ranks dead last in xFIP, 21st in HR/FB rate, and has given up the fourth-most HRs.
We should see a big day from the Yankees lineup, hopefully led by these three guys.
Ryan Jeffers +420
The Twins offense has been non-existent over the last few games. In Fact, before Alex Kirilloff’s Solo home run in last night’s game, the Twins had not scored a run in 28 straight innings.
Going against lefty Logan Allen might not be the ideal matchup, but it may help jump-start this offense.
The Guardians starter has struggled early in the 2024 season despite a 4-2 record. His 5.56 ERA and 4.46 xFIP tell how bad he has been. He has allowed nine home runs in 2024, seven of which have been to right-handed hitters. To put the Cherry on top, of those nine HRs allowed, six have been in his home stadium where he also boasts an ERA of 9.87.
Ryan Jeffers has been one of the Twins; best and most consistent hitters in 2024, leading the team in HRs, ISO, and wRC+.