MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (6/1)
What players across the MLB landscape have a good chance to go yard on Saturday? Let's hit some dingers with our favorite home run prop bets for June 1.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Gunnar Henderson (+390), Colton Cowser (+750), Ryan O'Hearn (+500)
Taj Bradley has been an excellent addition to the Rays rotation since coming off the IL. He is 1-2 in four starts but with a 3.13 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. He has only allowed more than three earned runs in a start once while completing five or more innings with six or more strikeouts in every outing.
The problem is that Bradley gets walloped by opposing left-handed hitters. Of the 15 hits he has allowed so far this season, 10 have been to lefties, and two of his three home runs allowed have also come off the bat of a left-handed hitter.
No one on the Orioles is better than Gunnar Henderson. He leads the league in homers against right-handed pitching (14) and has the third-highest ISO .304, trailing only Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker.
Colton Cowser doesn’t have Henderson’s HR numbers, but his ISO of .219 sticks out. It’s the second highest on the Orioles and comparable to that of stars like Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. Five of Cowser’s seven home runs have come against right-handed pitching.
Like his teammates above, Ryan O’Hearn also ranks inside the top 50 in ISO (.206) against right-handed pitchers, and all seven of his long balls have come against righties. O’Hearn is another Orioles lefty to take a shot with Saturday.
Marcell Ozuna (+290) & Matt Olson (+330)
With Oakland throwing out right-hander Aaron Brooks, there is an excellent chance we see a big day from the Atlanta lineup. Brooks is making his fourth start of the season. He’s 0-2 with a 3.36 ERA. On the surface, that doesn’t look too bad, but his advanced numbers are more telling. With a 5.07 xERA and a 5.74 xFIP, Brooks is a lot worse than the standard metrics show.
I’m taking a chance with the two hottest hitters in the Braves’ lineup. Both Olson and Ozuna match up well. Ozuna leads the Braves in HR and ISO against right-handed pitchers. Olson has an ISO over .220 against Brooks’ two main pitches: the fastball and slider.