MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (7/6)
What values are out there across the Majors today for players to go yard?
Let’s hit some dingers with our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Saturday, July 6.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Matt Chapman (+400) & Heliot Ramos (+470)
Lefty Logan Allen is on the mound for Cleveland today, and to put it bluntly, he is not as good as his 8-4 record implies. His ERA (5.75) and xERA (5.72) are nearly identical, meaning regression is due soon.
His 1.95 HR/9 is the highest among today’s starts, with at least 10 starts. He has allowed six HRs over his last five starts, with a total of 18 HRs in 2024. Of those 18 HRs, 14 have come off the bats of right-handed hitters.
Heliot Ramos is a budding superstar with a .495 ISO against lefties this year, with five of his 12 HRs coming off opposing lefties. Early on, he’s taking a liking to interleague play. Ramos is 20-for-56 with three doubles and four HRs against American League pitchers.
Matt Chapman has always done well against lefties in his career. Over his eight-year career, Chapman has a higher ISO (.226), SLG% (.487) and average (.262) than he does against right-handed pitchers.
I am expecting a big day from the Giants’ offense today, and both Chapman and Ramos should be able to take advantage of a great matchup against Logan Allen.
Aaron Judge (+168)
I’m taking Aaron Judge today, just for the heck of it. I rarely take an HR prop under +200, but the Yankees are 6-14 over their last 20 games and had a complete meltdown last night, blowing a 3-1 lead in the eighth inning and ultimately losing in extras.
Judge is on pace for another historic season, and the Yankees will need to rely on their captain to get them back on track.