MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (3/30)
It feels great giving out home run props once again at BettingPros. This will be my third year doing so. The first two seasons have been profitable. Let’s keep the momentum going.
Follow along and let’s cash out together.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jackson Chourio (+800)
We are starting with the first game on the slate and looking to take advantage of Marcus Stroman.
Stroman was dealing with some drama this offseason as the Yankees thought about moving him to the bullpen. He insisted he was a starter and refused to pitch in relief. Now he gets to back up those words and show he still can be an ineffective starter in this league.
Unfortunately, I am not sure that will happen. In 2024, the right-hander gave up 19 home runs, the most he has let up in a season since 2017. Fifteen of those homers came at Yankee Stadium.
Stroman is primarily a sinkerball pitcher. If those pitches stay flat, we could see another home run derby inside Yankee Stadium.
Jackson Chourio had a .229 ISO against right-handed pitchers last season with 18 home runs, the second-most on the Brewers.
Marcell Ozuna (+320)
I don't typically rely heavily on batter vs. pitcher trends but sometimes you can’t ignore them.
Marcell Ozuna has recorded eight hits on 29 at-bats against Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta. Six of those eight hits are home runs.
Pivetta typically uses two pitches, a fastball and a sweeper/slider. Last year, Ozuna had a .190 ISO against the fastball and an outstanding .329 ISO against the sweeper/slider.
Of Ozuna’s 39 home runs in 2024, 24 came against both of those pitches.
The Braves’ offense has been nowhere to be found early on. This is the perfect matchup to get them going.