MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (4/14)
What values are out there across the Majors today for players to go yard?
Let’s hit some dingers with our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Sunday, April 14.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Triston Casas (+480)
The Red Sox are facing Lefty Tyler Anderson this afternoon. Anderson is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, but I think that’s a bit of fool’s gold. While he has not allowed a run this season, his xERA is 2.52, and his xFIP is 4.59. Regression is due.
Over his last six starts, left-handed hitters have had great success against him, posting a .591 ISO and a .543 wOBA. Left-handed hitters typically see a mix of three pitchers from Anderson: fastball, sinker and cutter. Triston Casas has an ISO over .235 on all three pitches, including .429 against cutters.
Mike Trout (+320)
Staying in the same game, Mike Trout also represents gives us excellent value. Red Sox starter Bryon Bello has given up eight home runs over his last six starts, including three in 2024. Bello’s HR/FB rate to righties is 34%, giving RHHs an excellent opportunity to leave the park.
Bo Bichette (+470) & Justin Turner (+450)
Believe it or not, Kyle Freeland has given up more home runs away from Coors Field. In 2023, Freeland allowed 15 HRs on the road as opposed to 14 at Coors Field. In 2024, that trend seems to be repeating itself, as all three of his HRs have been away from his home stadium.
Of the 32 HRs he has allowed since the start of 2023, 29 have come from right-handed hitters.
Based on the five-pitched arsenal that Freeland likes to use against righties, Justin Turner is the most consistent and posts the highest ISO of all Blue Jays hitters.
Bo Bichette is second on the team in ISO against lefties, trailing only Turner. We could see a plethora of runs today, so let’s see if Bichette and Turner can knock a few balls out of the park.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: