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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Sunday (4/7)

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Every MLB team is playing today. Below are my favorite home run prop bets to target.

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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bryce Harper (+425)

The Nationals are starting MacKenzie Gore, who has allowed nine home runs over his last six starts dating back to last season. In 2023, Gore faced the Phillies thrice and allowed five home runs. 

While Bryce Harper has not hit a home run off Gore yet, he still performs well against lefties. This season, he leads the Phillies and the majors in ISO (.407). In his career against Gore, Harper is 3-for-11 (.273) with two doubles and three strikeouts. 

Gore is primarily a fastball and changeup pitcher, which is good news for Harper, as he has an ISO above .235 against both those pitches.

Aaron Judge (+215) & Juan Soto (+350)

Blue Jays starting pitcher Bowden Francis got roughed up in his 2024 debut, allowing seven runs on 10 hits (3 HRs) in 5.1 innings against the Astros.

Unfortunately for Francis, facing a Yankees offense that features Aaron Judge and Juan Soto won’t be easy. Aaron Judge is starting to heat up going 4-for-7 with two home runs in his last three games. When Judge gets hot it will allow better and more opportunities for the guys in front of him like Soto. This will also be Francis’ first start in Yankee Stadium so emotions may get the best of him early on.

Against right-handed hitters, Francis uses a three-pitch arsenal consisting of a fastball, changeup and cutter. Judge and Soto both feast on the first two, having an ISO over .300. The lone sore spot for both mega stars is against the cutter.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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