MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (10/10)
The 2024 MLB postseason continues with two American League Division Series (ALDS) Game 4 matchups on Thursday. The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park holding onto a 2-1 series lead. Meanwhile, the New York Yankees travel to battle the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium with a 2-1 series advantage.
Of course, a home run would send a major message in a contest of this magnitude. Here's a look at three pros set to launch a ball beyond the fence on October 10.
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Thursday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kerry Carpenter (+680)
Outfielder Kerry Carpenter became a hero when he crushed a three-run home run off Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase in Game 2 on Monday. Going yard when facing right-handers is what Carpenter has been doing all year, though. He posted a .305/.364/.631 slash line and 17 homers across 264 plate appearances against righties in the regular season. Another opportunity to put on a show awaits on Thursday.
Right-hander Tanner Bibee is set to start for the Guardians. Bibee’s 4.2 shutout innings in Game 1 of this series was his first scoreless start since July 19. Seeing a similar outing this time around would be surprising considering his career ERA versus Detroit sits at 5.28. Carpenter is 3-for-6 with a dinger against Bibee and owns the highest home OPS (.913) of any Tigers slugger in 2024. Trust him to crank one.
Giancarlo Stanton (+370)
It’s safe to say Giancarlo Stanton did not have every Yankees fan in his corner entering the playoffs. After all, he finished with an on-base percentage under .300 for the third straight campaign. The former MVP has silenced the doubt by going 4-for-13 with a double and a home run in three contests versus Kansas City. Stanton’s 417-foot shot to left-center in the eighth inning put New York up for good in Game 3.
There’s a great chance Stanton can replicate his success in Game 4. He is the only Yankees hitter with multiple extra-base knocks against Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha. Not only that, but Stanton has logged a .547 slugging percentage in 12 career contests at Kauffman Stadium. The favorable dimensions work in the favor of a man with Stanton’s strength and power. Only one connection with a pitch left in the zone is needed.
Tommy Pham (+900)
Let’s zero in on a dark horse option. New York is relying on veteran Gerrit Cole on Thursday. Cole has had struggles containing the long ball when it matters most, allowing a home run in 15 of his 18 career postseason starts. That includes a jack in each of his eight playoff performances as a Yankee. One journeyman on the Kansas City roster has given the ace fits over the past decade. That would be none other than outfielder Tommy Pham.
The trade deadline acquisition has slashed .361/.351/.611 and walloped three doubles to go with two homers through 36 at-bats versus Cole. That is not a small sample size. Take note that eight of his nine blasts this year have come when thrown a fastball. Cole relies on his four-seamer more than any other pitch in his arsenal (45.6%). Backing Pham to send the crowd into a frenzy at +900 odds or even just to record an RBI at +290 odds is worth the risk.