MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (10/17)
The 2024 MLB postseason continues with a pair of dynamic matchups on Thursday. The New York Mets strive to draw even with the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 of the National League Championship Series (NLCS). The New York Yankees aim to build on their 2-0 series advantage over the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series (ALCS). Now is the time for superstars to step up and guide their squads to the World Series.
Of course, a home run sends a major message in contests of this magnitude. Here's a look at three sluggers set to launch a ball beyond the fence on October 17th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+250)
Aaron Judge finally got the monkey off his back. The All-Star outfielder’s streak of consecutive playoff plate appearances without a home run ended at 44 thanks to his 414-foot jack to center field in Game 2. He joked after the 6-2 victory that “the ghosts were pulling out there to Monument Park.†This is someone who finished atop the league in hard-hit percentage (61.0%) and average exit velocity (96.2 miles per hour), though. Any baseball that Judge gets his barrel on has a chance to be a souvenir for a fan.
The ALCS now shifts to Progressive Field in Cleveland, where Judge went 4-for-13 with two doubles and a homer in the regular season. Veteran Matthew Boyd draws the start for the Guardians. The left-hander gave up back-to-back first-inning dingers to Juan Soto and Judge on the road in his outing against the Yankees on August 20th. Judge sports a .974 career OPS in away games and posted a .735 slugging percentage versus southpaws this year. This pick has incredible value despite the shorter odds.
Teoscar Hernandez (+520) & Enrique Hernandez (+870)
Los Angeles has jumped all over New York’s pitching staff in this series, averaging 6.67 runs per contest. The Mets will turn to Jose Quintana in Game 4 to turn things around. The crafty southpaw has been on a recent hot streak on the mound. However, he has conceded a .299/.368/.481 slash line to this Dodgers lineup across 154 at-bats. Take note that 17 of the 22 home runs Quintana has allowed this campaign have come off the bat of a right-handed hitter. That makes two dark horses stick out.
Teoscar Hernandez finished the regular season with the third-best OPS against lefties (.934) in the National League and has tallied 12 RBI in 12 career games at Citi Field. He’s due for a breakthrough. Meanwhile, Enrique Hernandez has taken advantage of his increased playing time by smoking two home runs in six playoff clashes. The 33-year-old has now racked up 15 blasts in 224 postseason at-bats, which is the highest total on an L.A. roster full of power. Talk about an underrated option with a clear upside.
Bettors looking to go big or go home can create a same-game parlay with both sending a ball into the crowd at +4915 odds. They've gone yard in the same contest twice in the last month. Quintana was also tagged for two homers in his sole start versus the Dodgers in 2024.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: