MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (4/11)
All it takes is one swing of the bat to cash a healthy payout when it comes to MLB home run prop bets. That anticipation grows on days when there aren’t as many players to choose from. Thursday’s slate offers bettors seven games to dive into. Here’s a look at three competitors who stand out in their odds to launch a long ball on April 11.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Ozzie Albies (+500)
Wednesday’s contest between the Mets and the Braves was postponed due to inclement weather. Players got an unexpected rest day, so they should enter Truist Park with some added juice on Thursday afternoon. That bodes well for Atlanta considering veteran Jose Quintana will take the mound for New York. Quintana is one of five left-handers to allow at least 181 home runs in their career and throw a pitch in 2024. Experience isn’t always a benefit.
Second baseman Ozzie Albies enters with the best power numbers against Quintana. He is slashing .600/.636/1.400 across 11 plate appearances with two home runs and two doubles. It’s worth mentioning Albies’ career slugging percentage checks in at .570 against left-handed pitching, which is far better than his .448 mark against right-handed pitching. Back the 27-year-old to provide an early spark in Atlanta’s dugout by sending a line drive over the fence.
Christian Yelich (+430)
It’s never a bad idea to ride the hot hand and Christian Yelich has been demolishing baseballs for the Brewers lately. The two-time All-Star has smashed a home run in four of his last seven games and enters Thursday with a slugging percentage of .737. That trails only Tyler O’Neill of the Red Sox and Mike Trout of the Angels for the best mark in the majors. Up next is a matchup against Cincinnati starting pitcher Nick Martinez.
Martinez has been roughed up across his first two starts this year, giving up eight earned runs on 14 hits and two walks in 10.0 innings of work. Pitching at Great American Ballpark just makes things tougher for the righty hurler, too. The stadium ranks third-best in overall offensive park factors since 2022. Batters have no trouble finding the gaps in the outfield and lifting the ball for distance. Yelich is set up for another big day at the plate.
Nelson Velasquez (+600)
Nelson Velasquez showed some pop when he smacked 14 home runs over a 33-game stretch in 2023. It helped him land a starting role out of the gate in 2024 and he has not wasted a minute of the opportunity. The Puerto Rican native currently ranks among the top-25 players in sweet spot percentage (47.4%) and has logged a hit in seven of his 10 games played. However, what solidifies Velazquez as a top option is his past run-ins with Houston’s Hunter Brown.
Brown has gone toe-to-toe with Velasquez twice before and allowed a home run in both showdowns. Velasquez crushed a 94-mph cutter 380 feet to right-center field for a homer in the second inning and smoked a 94-mph four-seam fastball 396 feet to right field in the third inning of a September game last year. It may be a small sample size, but back-to-back home runs do not happen by accident. Trusting Velasquez at these odds is well worth a shot.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: