MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (4/18)
It's slim pickings on Thursday with just five MLB games scheduled for play. There's still value to be had from a home run prop bet perspective, though, as dependable sluggers and advantageous matchups are lined up for action. Here's a look at three players who jump out when it comes to their chances of sending a ball over the outfield fence on April 18.
MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Mike Trout (+300)
Mike Trout is kicking it into high gear during the early goings of 2024. The three-time American League MVP leads the Angels with a 1.053 OPS and is tied for the Major League lead in home runs (eight). He enters a series finale against the Rays with a home run in two of his last three games. Keep in mind all eight of his long balls have come when facing right-handed pitching. That is noteworthy ahead of a matchup against Tampa Bay righty Ryan Pepiot.
Pepiot has been torched across two home starts. The 26-year-old has allowed 10 earned runs on nine hits (three home runs) and five walks in 10.2 innings. Overall, there have been 30 home runs hit at Tropicana Field this year. That is tied for the highest mark at any MLB stadium. Trout is not afraid to swing at the first pitch or work a full count to see the type of pitch he wants to see. That makes him an incredibly dangerous hitter.
Isaac Paredes (+425)
Let’s stick in this game because Pepiot is opposed on the mound by Griffin Canning for Los Angeles. Canning has allowed at least one home run in all three of his 2024 starts and is one of 12 pitchers to give up at least five home runs on the year. He enters Thursday with a WHIP of 1.83 and an opposing slugging percentage of .683. Simply put, the fifth-year pro has failed to limit hard contact. Someone in the Rays’ lineup is going to make Canning pay for a pitch left over the middle.
Isaac Paredes is an enticing player to back considering he leads the Rays with five home runs through 19 games. Paredes is also the only player on Tampa Bay’s roster with an extra-base hit against Canning. Any sliver of experience against a pitcher can come in handy when fighting inside the batter’s box. A rise in career slugging percentage from .400 on the road to .493 at home gives Paredes a true chance to cash an MLB home run bet.
Michael Busch (+700)
Miami pitcher A.J. Puk’s start got pushed from Monday to Thursday due to an illness. Add in the fact that he has yet to last longer than 4.2 innings in any of his three starts and this lines up as a bullpen game for the Marlins. That’s an advantage for the Cubs. Miami’s bullpen ranks dead last in hits allowed (84) and stands 29th in ERA (5.87). There will be plenty of opportunities for Chicago to crush one at Wrigley.
Ride the hot hand and place a wager for Michael Busch. Busch has become a household name for the Cubs after hitting a home run in five straight games from April 10 to April 15. The 26-year-old acquired via trade in January has impressed by ranking among the top 25 players in sweet-spot percentage (46.2%) and average exit velocity (93.5 mph), too. Busch is doing whatever it takes to prove he can be a mainstay at first base.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: