MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (4/4)
It’s slim pickings on Thursday with only six games on the MLB schedule. There’s still value to be had from a home run prop bet perspective, though, as notable sluggers and advantageous matchups are lined up for action. Here’s a look at three players that catch the eye when it comes to their chances of smacking a ball out of the yard on April 4.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+500)
The folks sitting in the outfield seats at Busch Stadium will need to stay attentive on Thursday afternoon. That’s because Lance Lynn is set to take the mound for the Cardinals after giving up the most home runs of any starting pitcher in 2023 (44). The veteran hurler has posted a HR/9 mark worse than the league average in three of the last four MLB campaigns as well. The Miami Marlins should be ready to pounce on a pitcher who regularly pounds the strike zone.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the name that sticks out in the Marlins lineup given he is responsible for one of the team’s four home runs on the year and has gone deep against Lynn in the past. The fiery outfielder ranks among the top 25 MLB pros in sweet spot percentage (53.8%) and among the 40 in average exit velocity (94.2 mph) across roughly a week of play. Simply put, Chisholm is making hard contact when he can get the bat on the ball. Back him to keep the momentum going on Thursday.
Willson Contreras (+425)
Lynn isn’t the only starting pitcher on the mound in St. Louis with known struggles in terms of limiting the long ball. Miami’s Ryan Weathers has posted a HR/9 mark of 1.8 across his first 47 appearances in the majors (32 starts). The pitcher acquired at the 2023 trade deadline looked subpar in his first start of this season as he allowed three earned runs on seven hits in 4.0 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. That lineup is nowhere near as stacked as the one the Cardinals put up.
Willson Contreras is the one to trust here as he has crushed a home run in two of his last three games. That’s not the only reason, either. Contreras has seen what Weathers has to offer before, tallying a home run and two doubles in nine career at-bats against the left-hander. Keep in mind Contreras’ career slugging percentage jumps from .440 on the road to .482 at home. Feeding off the energy of a supportive crowd will help him cash this MLB home run prop bet.
Bo Naylor (+700)
There are limited options on Thursday, so let’s throw a dart on a long shot in Cleveland’s Bo Naylor. Naylor showed off his power when he took a 1-0 fastball from Seattle’s Luis Castillo and deposited it into the right field seats for his first home run of the season on Tuesday night. The 24-year-old has launched 12 career home runs and eight have come on the road. That’s an enticing note as the Guardians conclude their current road trip with three games at Target Field in Minneapolis.
The Twins are sending Pablo Lopez to the mound on Thursday afternoon. Lopez can be a strikeout machine at times, but he gave up a career-high 24 home runs across 32 starts last year and also allowed a long ball in his first start of 2024. Naylor has reached base in four of his six plate appearances versus Lopez. That includes when the young catcher pulled a fastball down the right field line and over the fence for a 388-foot homer in August of 2023. Naylor has proven he has underrated pop.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: