MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/2)
It’s slim pickings on Thursday with just six MLB games scheduled for play. There’s still value to be had from a home run prop bet perspective, though, as reliable sluggers and beneficial matchups are lined up for action. Here’s a look at three players who stick out regarding their chances of launching a dinger on May 2. Check out our top MLB home run player prop bet picks for today’s slate of games.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB home run player prop bet picks for today’s slate of games.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Matt Chapman (+320)
Matt Chapman is one of the only players on Thursday’s slate to have past success against his opposing pitcher. The San Francisco third baseman has logged a slash line of .667/.778/.1.667 with three extra-base hits (one home run) in nine plate appearances versus Boston starter Josh Winckowski. That long ball came when Chapman jumped on a first-pitch sinker and smashed it 325 feet to the opposite field last July.
Winckowski has been no stranger to giving up commanding contact in 2024 as he ranks 347th out of 387 qualified pitchers in hard-hit percentage (48.3%). It doesn’t help that the 25-year-old pitches at Fenway Park, either. The historical stadium ranks second in offensive park factors over the last three seasons. Temperatures are expected to cross the 70-degree mark during the day which helps Chapman’s case here as the ball will fly far and long.
Josh Naylor (+400)
It’s safe to say the beginning of Houston pitcher Spencer Arrighetti’s career has not gone to plan. The rookie enters Thursday with a 0-3 record to go with a 10.97 ERA and 2.34 WHIP across three starts. Surrendering walks has been his biggest issue, so the Astros pitching staff may urge him to pound the strike zone more often. That bodes well for Cleveland’s lineup, especially the team’s strongest power hitter Josh Naylor.
Naylor leads the Guardians with seven home runs and ranks 10th in the American League with a .528 slugging percentage. Not only that, but he has excelled when on the road throughout his career. Naylor has racked up 99 extra-base hits in 243 away games, which greatly outshines his total of 59 extra-base hits in 232 home games. I wouldn’t be surprised if Naylor cashes this MLB home run bet as early as the first inning.
Jeremy Pena (+600)
Let’s stick to the Guardians-Astros matchup since Cleveland starter Logan Allen has been far from impressive this year. The Florida native has allowed four home runs over his last three starts and is one of 30 MLB pitchers to give up 41+ batted balls with an exit velocity of at least 95 miles per hour (MPH). Houston’s Jeremy Pena is an enticing option as he runs into a struggling pitcher he has crushed in a past showdown.
Pena garnered a double and two singles in three at-bats in his sole game against Allen. The young shortstop has been a bright spot on an otherwise lackluster Astros offense this season as he ranks in the 96th percentile in expected batting average. Batting right-handed in Minute Maid Park is an advantage considering the left field foul pole checks in just 315 feet away from home plate. Look for Pena to pulverize one into the Crawford Boxes.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: