MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (10/1)
The MLB postseason is upon us with a four-game Tuesday slate to get the Wild Card Round started. I'm heading to the prop sheet to get some skin in the game, where I've narrowed in on three players to touch’em all. Here are my top three home run prop picks in the MLB today.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alex Bregman (+500)
The action gets started in H-Town this afternoon, where we have a dynamite pitching matchup between Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez. First pitch between the Tigers and Astros is scheduled for 2:32 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX.
Let me start by saying it's tough to find any noteworthy flaws with a lot of these pitchers. There isn't much meat on the bone when it comes to criticizing guys like Tarik Skubal. I mean, he is a runaway favorite to win the American League Cy Young. He enters today's game with a record of 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA (second), 0.92 WHIP (second) and 228 strikeouts (first). The left-hander has also done well to keep the ball in the yard, logging a 0.70 HR/9 rate.
With these postseason starters being so dominant, I think it provides value when you finally muster up the courage to fade them. With that said, I'll play Alex Bregman to go yard at +500. The Houston third baseman is 3-for-9 (.333) against Skubal with a triple and a double. He finished the year on a heater, going 10-for-26 (.385) with three bombs over the final seven games. Bregman has launched 19 home runs in 97 career playoff games. That includes a stretch where he's homered at least once in each of his last five series played. I'll be sprinkling on Bregman to touch’em all at 5/1 this afternoon.
Willy Adames (+425) & Rhys Hoskins (+550)
The Brewers went wire-to-wire for their second straight National League Central title and have won the division in four out of the last seven seasons. They'll host a Mets squad that's coming off a doubleheader in Atlanta yesterday. The series opener features a pitching matchup between Luis Severino and Freddy Peralta. First pitch is set for 5:32 p.m. ET from American Family Field in Milwaukee, WI.
Severino has put together a decent debut season with the Mets, coming into Tuesday's contest 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA (39th) and 1.24 WHIP (41st). The right-hander logged a respectable 1.14 HR/9 rate this year while posting a 12.3% HR/FB mark. Severino is running into a tough Milwaukee offense that has had his number in the past, as their current lineup is slashing .333/.375/.578 against him over 45 at-bats.
Willy Adames and Rhys Hoskins stand out to me. Adames is 4-for-11 (.364) with a home run and a double against Severino, while Hoskins is 3-for-6 (.500) with a home run. Adames led the club with 32 big flies this season, which is a career-high mark for him. As for Hoskins, he blasted 26 bombs in only 131 games played, so his power certainly hasn't dipped following his knee injury from a year ago. Ultimately, I love this setup for the Crew. They have a rest edge, home-field advantage and their ace Peralta on the mound. Brewers Moneyline (-142 at DraftKings Sportsbook) is my favorite play on the board. I expect Adames and Hoskins to do some damage in the series opener.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Freddy Peralta (1.35, 173.2 IP)
- Luis Severino (1.14, 182.0 IP)
- Corbin Burns (1.02, 194.1 IP)
- Michael King (0.88, 173.2 IP)
- Cole Ragans (0.72, 186.1 IP)
Make sure to check out our best bets for Tuesday: