MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (10/8)
All four remaining National League teams are back in action after a built-in travel day on Monday. If you want to get some skin in the game tonight, you've come to the right place. Below I've narrowed in on three players primed to touch’em all. Here are my top home run prop bets for tonight's National League Division Series (NLDS) action on the diamond.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nick Castellanos (+500)
The Phillies (1-1) knotted up their NLDS with the Mets (1-1) in a 7-6 victory on Sunday. Now they'll turn to Aaron Nola as they try to win their second straight game. New York counters with Sean Manaea in this divisional clash, which is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET from Citi Field in Queens, NY.
Nick Castellanos was the hero in Sunday's 7-6 barnburner, going 3-for-5 with a home run and the walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the ninth. I'm running it back with Castellanos to go yard in Queens tonight. The 32-year-old launched 23 home runs this season, which trailed only Kyle Schwarber (38) and Bryce Harper (30) on the team. Castellanos is hitting .444 during the 2024 playoffs, going 4-for-9 out of the gate.
What I love most about this wager on Castellanos is the head-to-head numbers against Manaea. Castellanos is 6-for-16 (.375) against the southpaw with three home runs and a double. The team as a whole is slashing .309/.346/.680 against him over 90 at-bats. That's a 1.027 OPS over a huge sample size of 90 at-bats. Manaea was solid this season with a 3.47 ERA (20th), but he does give up roughly one home run per nine innings pitched (1.04 HR/9). With Philadelphia's offense heating up, I think they can do some damage tonight. Let's sprinkle on Castellanos to go deep at 5/1.
Pete Alonso (+425)
Keeping it in the same game, I'm also locking in Pete Alonso to go yard at +425. The Mets slugger hit a three-run, go-ahead home run against the Brewers in Game 3 of the Wild Card Round last Thursday. He followed it up with a solo shot in Sunday's 7-6 loss in Philly, giving him two postseason bombs already in 2024. Alonso's coming off a respectable regular season where he smashed a team-leading 34 home runs.
Like Castellanos, Alonso also has a solid track record against his opposing pitcher. Alsono will face Aaron Nola, who he's 16-for-50 (.320) against with five big flies and three doubles. Nola has been susceptible to giving up home runs, as his HR/9 rate was 1.35 during the regular season. In 48.2 career postseason innings, the right-hander has a 1.11 HR/9 rate and a 3.70 ERA. Nola was excellent this year with a 3.57 ERA (26th) and 1.20 WHIP (32nd), but the head-to-head numbers suggest Alonso should have a chance to get to him. Also, Philadelphia's bullpen has been atrocious through two games, posting a 15.00 ERA and giving up three tanks. Let's lock in Alonso to deposit one into the bleachers.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+290)
The Padres (1-1) jacked six home runs in their 10-2 rout of the Dodgers (1-1) on Sunday, evening up the series at one game apiece. The division rivals are back at it again this evening in a pitching matchup between Walker Buehler and Michael King. First pitch is set for 9:08 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA.
Two of the six Slam Diego home runs on Sunday belonged to Fernando Tatis Jr., who went 3-for-4 with three RBI. The right fielder is on an insane heater this postseason, slashing .643/.722/.1.429 over 14 at-bats. He already has three home runs and is currently riding a streak of three consecutive multi-hit games.
Tatis gets another favorable matchup tonight, as he squares off against the struggling Buehler. The right-hander made 16 regular season starts in 2024, going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. His HR/9 rate was 1.91 over 75.1 innings of work, which is the worst among today's starting pitchers. Tatis has crushed Buehler throughout his career, going 9-for-29 (.310) against him with four home runs. With the way Tatis is swinging the bat right now, I'll gladly take a +290 payout to say he goes deep.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Walker Buehler (1.91, 75.1 IP)
- Aaron Nola (1.35, 199.1 IP)
- Sean Manaea (1.04, 181.2 IP)
- Michael King (0.88, 173.2 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: