With the MLB rolling out a 15-game schedule tonight, there's no shortage of ways to get in on the betting action. I'm heading to the prop sheet for a few longshot home runs prop bets. Here's who I'm betting to touch 'em all tonight.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Javier Baez (+850)
Let's get things started with an afternoon sweat, as the Yankees (6-4) take on the Tigers (6-4) in the lone matinee matchup today. Carlos Carrasco gets the nod for New York, while Detroit opts for Tarik Skubal. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit, MI.
I'm going to sprinkle on a long shot in Javy Baez this afternoon. The veteran shortstop is out to a hot start, hitting .318 with just three strikeouts in 22 at-bats. He's yet to go yard, but I think this could be the spot for him to log his first homer of the season.
Baez will face New York's Carlos Carrasco, who enters with an ugly 7.36 ERA over two starts. The right-hander has given up one home run in 7.1 innings in 2025, which equates to a HR/9 rate of 1.22. Carrasco is coming off of a season where he posted a 1.65 HR/9 rate, which is the third-highest amongst today's starting pitchers. Baez is 3-for-7 (.429) with a home run against Carrasco. Finally, the wind will be blowing out to left-centerfield at 11.6 miles per hour (MPH) around first pitch, giving hitters favorable conditions.
Seiya Suzuki (+550)
Let's head to the Windy City, where the Rangers (8-3) and Cubs (8-5) square off. Chicago won last night's series opener 7-0, and they'll turn to Jameson Taillon to keep things rolling. Texas opts for Patrick Corbin in this interleague tilt, which gets underway at 7:40 p.m. ET from Wrigley Field in Chicago, IL.
The Cubs are on a tear offensively, ranking fourth in home runs (17) and seventh in OPS (.779). Four of those big flies belong to Seiya Suzuki, and that's good enough for the fourth-most in the Majors. Suzuki is coming off of a 2-for-3 night in yesterday's victory.
The Japanese-born slugger will try to take Texas' newest starter, Patrick Corbin, deep in this game. This will be the lefty’s season debut, and he went 6-13 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with Washington last season. Chicago's lineup is slashing .351/.422/.601 against Corbin, and that includes Suzuki, who's 4-for-10 (.400) against him with two tanks. Corbin has been a profitable fade in recent history, and I don't expect him or his 1.29 HR/9 rate to rebound against the red-hot Cubs.
Yordan Alvarez (+220)
The Astros (4-6) are off to a slow start this season, and they'll try to turn things around tonight against Luis Castillo and the Mariners (4-7). Houston has yet to name a starter. This American League West clash gets underway at 9:40 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA.
We're not getting a great payout with Yordan Alvarez tonight, but there's a reason for that. The superstar has demolished Luis Castillo (3.00 ERA in 2025) in the past, going 8-for-17 (.471) against him with three home runs and a double. I'll take Alvarez, who has one long ball in 2025, to touch 'em all tonight. For as solid of a starter as Castillo is, he hasn't been immune to giving up homers. He posted a modest 1.28 HR/9 mark in 2024 and he has given up two tanks in 12.0 IP (1.50 HR/9) this season.
Xander Bogaerts (+600)
The MLB action concludes out West with a game between the Padres (9-2) and the Athletics (4-7). Dylan Cease will toe the rubber for the Friars, while the A's counter with Jeffrey Springs. First pitch is scheduled for 10:05 p.m. ET from Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, CA
I'll sprinkle on one more long shot tonight, taking Xander Bogaerts to pick up his first home run of the year. Bogaerts will face Jeffrey Springs, who recorded a 1.36 HR/9 rate last season. The duo have had 10 head-to-head encounters, and Bogaerts is 2-for-10 (.200) against him with a home run.
Mostly, I like this matchup because the ball has been flying out of this Minor League stadium in Sacramento. In four home games, the Athletics are averaging 13.25 combined runs per game. Those four games have seen 16 home runs between the teams! With a lofty +600 payout, I'm going to throw a few bucks on Bogaerts to leave the yard.
