MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/10)
The MLB rolls out a full 15-game slate this evening, which provides us with a myriad of ways to get some skin in the game. I'm heading to the prop sheet for my bets, where I've narrowed in on three players to go yard. Here are my top three home run prop bets for tonight's action on the diamond.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Schwarber (+370)
The Phillies picked up a 2-1 win in last night's series opener against the Rays, marking their seventh victory in their last nine games. The two sides are back at it tonight and we have a pitching matchup between Taj Bradley and Ranger Suarez. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA.
Bradley (4.40 ERA) is having an inconsistent 2024 campaign, but the 23-year-old has been on the downswing lately. He's posted a 9.20 ERA over his last six starts (30.1 innings). More importantly, the right-hander has been giving up plenty of homers over the stretch, conceding eight bombs in his last five outings. Overall, Bradley brings in a 1.54 HR/9 rate this season, which is the fifth-highest mark amongst today's starting pitchers.
That's not a great formula when you're tasked with trying to limit the Phillies, who are ninth in the MLB with 173 home runs this year. It's none other than Kyle Schwarber leading the way with 34 of those tanks. He's blasted six home runs in his last seven contests, including going yard in last night's win. We have no head-to-head numbers between Schwarber and Bradley, but with the way each guy is trending, I think a +370 payout is well worth the shot.
Anthony Santander (+370) & Adley Rutschman (+600)
The Red Sox cruised to a 12-3 beatdown of the Orioles last night, issuing the O's their third straight defeat. The divisional foes will run it back tonight in a pitching matchup between Albert Suarez and Kutter Crawford. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA.
Crawford (4.08 ERA) has been a hit-or-miss option for Boston recently. He's turned in two straight quality starts but owns a 5.79 ERA over his last six outings (37.1 innings). The right-hander has conceded seven home runs over the six-start stretch, bringing his HR/9 rate up to 1.62.
Interestingly, Crawford has logged decent numbers against the O's, limiting their current roster to a slash line of .176/.247/.378 over 74 at-bats. However, two players stand out - Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander. Rutschman's 3-for-10 (.300) against Crawford with a pair of bombs, while Santander's 4-for-11 (.364) with a round-tripper.
This Baltimore squad can do some damage, which is exemplified by the fact they're second in the Majors with 212 big flies this season. Forty of those belong to Santander (third-most). Rutschman has 18 home runs (84th) in 2024. Let's ride with the duo to go deep at Fenway tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Hayden Birdsong (1.73, 52.0 IP)
- Keider Montero (1.70, 74.0 IP)
- Kutter Crawford (1.62, 161.0 IP)
- Aaron Civale (1.60, 140.1 IP)
- Taj Bradley (1.54, 116.2 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: