MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/17)
The MLB is back with a full 15-game slate tonight, and we have a few pivotal matchups as the playoff race heats up. From a betting standpoint, I'm heading to the prop sheet, where I've locked in three players to go yard. Here are my top three home run prop bets for tonight's action.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Shohei Ohtani (+210)
The Dodgers' east coast road trip continues, and the next stop is Miami to take on the Marlins for three games. Tonight's series opener features a pitching matchup between Bobby Miller and Darren McCaughan. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL.
McCaughan is set to make his seventh appearance (fourth start) of the season tonight. Things haven't gone well for the 28-year-old. He brings in a 7.06 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over 29.1 innings. More importantly, at least for our sake, his HR/9 rate is 1.84. That's not a great formula when you're tasked with slowing down a Los Angeles offense ranked third in home runs (209).
Forty-seven of those 209 tanks belong to Shohei Ohtani, a sizable favorite (-2500 via DraftKings) to secure his second straight MVP award. Ohtani hasn't slowed down in the home run department, where he has launched three of them in his last 10 games. The 30-year-old superstar also gets a favorable matchup against the right-handed McCaughan. He's slashing .300/.395/.681 with 36 homers against righties. We don't have any head-to-head data between Ohtani and McCaughan, but this feels like a spot where the slugger will have an advantage in collecting home run number 48.
Christian Walker (+285) & Eugenio Suarez (+340)
The Diamondbacks dropped last night's series opener with the Rockies, losing 3-2 in walk-off fashion. The divisional foes are back at it tonight. We have a pitching matchup between Jordan Montgomery and Ryan Feltner. First pitch is set for 8:40 p.m. ET from Coors Field in Denver, CO.
Feltner's not having a memorable 2024 campaign, as he's just 2-10 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 27 starts (143.2 innings). The right-hander enters tonight's game with a 1.19 HR/9 rate, the 10th-highest among today's starting pitchers. Feltner's job is tough tonight, as he'll try to stifle the league's best offense. Arizona ranks first in both runs per game (5.49) and OPS (.778), while sitting second in team batting average (.264) and fourth in home runs (193).
The Snakes have gotten home run contributions throughout their roster, but it's the trio of Ketel Marte (32), Eugenio Suarez (29) and Christian Walker (25) who have paved the way. I'll ride with Suarez and Walker to go deep tonight. Walker has owned Feltner in the past, going 5-for-6 (.833) against him with two home runs and two doubles. As for Suarez, he's 1-for-4 (.250) against the Colorado hurler with a big fly. Suarez has been on a tear recently, registering eight home runs in his last 16 games. Walker just returned from injury earlier this month, but he has two bombs in 11 games since returning. Let's ride with Arizona's corner infielders to go yard at the hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Zebby Matthews (2.84, 25.1 IP)
- Bobby Miller (2.83, 54.0 IP)
- Darren McCaughan (1.84, 29.1 IP)
- Nick Pivetta (1.74, 129.1 IP)
- Griffin Canning (1.61, 156.1 IP
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: