MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Tuesday (9/24)
The MLB season is winding down, but there’s still plenty of money to be made as we enter the final week of the regular season. For tonight’s 15-game slate, I’m heading to the prop sheet, where I’ve narrowed in on three players who are primed to touch’em all. Here are my top three home run prop bets.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+285) & Juan Soto (+475)
The Yankees have an opportunity to secure a division title tonight and they’ll look to do so against second-place Baltimore (6.0 games back). Tonight’s series opener features a pitching matchup between Dean Kremer and Clarke Schmidt. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET from Yankee Stadium in Bronx, NY.
Kremer has been a serviceable option for the Orioles this season, going 7-10 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over 23 starts (124.2 innings). In terms of his home run numbers, the right-hander brings in a modest 1.23 HR/9 rate. He just gave up two bombs in his last start against the Giants. Kremer will have to deal with a New York offense ranked first in the MLB with 229 homers this season.
The current Yankees roster has found success against Kremer in the past, as their lineup is slashing .273/.333/.512 against him over 121 at-bats. Specifically, the always-dangerous Aaron Judge stands out, as he’s 4-for-13 (.308) with three home runs. Juan Soto is 2-for-7 (.286) with a big fly as well. I’m going to ride with both of these sluggers to touch’em all tonight.
Judge essentially has the American League MVP award locked up, courtesy of a season where he’s hitting .323 with 55 home runs, 138 RBI and a 1.154 OPS. He’s homered in two straight games and he has a great chance to see this trend continue. As for Soto, he’s compiling a solid resume this year, hitting .287 with 40 home runs. I expect the stars to shine with a division title on the line, so I’m banking on both Judge and Soto to go yard tonight.
Michael Conforto (+500)
The Giants logged a 6-3 victory over the Diamondbacks last night, which marks their fourth straight win. The divisional foes are back at it tonight in a pitching matchup between Logan Webb and Brandon Pfaadt. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Pfaadt, and he’s currently on the downswing. The right-hander has made four starts this month, logging a 7.58 ERA while allowing three home runs. Overall this year, Pfaadt is 10-9 with a 4.66 ERA (54th) and 1.23 WHIP (40th). His 1.14 HR/9 rate is the 12th-highest amongst today’s starting pitchers in the MLB.
Michael Conforto’s coming off of a 2-for-5 night in Phoenix last night, where he launched a home run and added a double. He now has three home runs in his last five games, bringing him to 19 on the season. Conforto gets a decent matchup against Pfaadt, who is struggling right now. He’s seen the pitcher well in the past, going 2-for-5 (.400) against him with a solo home run. With Conforto on a power surge and Pfaadt not pitching his best, I think it’s worth a 5/1 sprinkle on him to go deep tonight.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Landon Knack (1.77, 61.0 IP)
- Bowden Francis (1.55, 98.2 IP)
- Jonathan Cannon (1.35, 113.1 IP)
- Bailey Ober (1.33, 113.1 IP)
- Nathan Eovaldi (1.32, 156.2 IP)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: