MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (10/2)
Below are our favorite home run prop picks for Wednesday, October 2nd.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Rhys Hoskins (+370) & William Contreras (+450)
We will attack the Mets pitching staff in Game 2 of this series as the amount of baseball they have played over the last 48 hours finally catches up to them.
Sean Manaea gets the start for the Mets today. He just saw the Brewers last week, where he was lit up for six runs on seven hits, including one home run to Rhys Hoskins.
I like fading pitchers going against the same team in back-to-back starts. Along with a tired bullpen, this could lead to big output by this Brewers lineup.
In their careers, Hoskins and William Contreras have had the most success against Manaea.
Hoskins is 2-6 with 2 dingers, while Contreras is 2-6 with one double.
Of the 21 home runs Sean Manaea has allowed, 14 have come off the bat of right-handed hitters. When facing right-handed hitters, Manaea relies heavily on his fastball and sinker, throwing those two pitchers nearly 60% of the time.
Hoskins has an ISO of .263 and a wOBA of .383 against the fastball and an ISO of .261 and wOBA of .392 against the sinker. Thirteen of his 26 home runs have come off these two pitches alone.
Contreras has an ISO of .253 against the fastball and an ISO of .154 against the sinker but a wOBA above .440 against both pitches. Eleven of his 23 home runs have also been off those two pitches.
While the Mets bullpen has been stellar over the last month, it has to be getting tired after using eight guys in the last two days.
Even if we can't get to Manaea, we should be able to take advantage of an overused Mets bullpen.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:
- NFL Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds & Picks
- NFL Week 5 Pick'em Pool Predictions (2024)