MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (10/9)
Our top MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, October 9.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kyle Schwarber (+350) & Nick Castellanos (+540)
Home run props are a little more challenging to cash during the playoffs, as you usually go against the opposing team’s top two or three pitchers.
But the Phillies’ matchup against Jose Quintana is one of the few times a team has plenty of experience against a pitcher.
As a team, they have 191 at-bats against the Mets starter. They are batting a combined .245 with six doubles, one triple and six home runs.
While Kyle Schwarber is only batting .167 this postseason, he is one of three Phillies to hit a homer already and has had success against Quintana. In 24 at-bats, Schwarber is batting .292 with one double and one home run against the Mets starter.
When pitching against opposing lefties, Quintana relies heavily on his sinker, throwing it nearly 50% of the time.
Schwarber has a team-high .232 ISO against sinkers. He also has a .294 ISO against the fastball - Quintana’s second-most used pitch.
As for Castellanos, he has been the Phillies’ best hitter thus far in the postseason. The veteran outfielder is batting .385 with one home run and three RBI.
When facing a right-handed batter, Quintana tends to mix his pitches more so than when he faces a lefty. The right-hander uses a four-pitch mix, including a fastball, sinker, change-up and curveball. The good news for Castellano is he has an ISO of over .150 against all of them except the sinker.
Manny Machado (+360)
It is assumed Landon Knack will get the start for the Dodgers tonight against the red-hot Padres.
If so, we may see another big day from the Padres.
Landon Knack is 3-5 with a 3.65 ERA and a 4.23 xFIP. His 1.83 HR/9 is the highest among today's starters. He would be making his postseason season debut if he starts. Having to make your playoff debut against a red-hot team like the Padres with the season on the line is a lot to ask from a rookie.
In his lone start against San Diego three weeks ago, he allowed four runs on five hits, including a home run.
Knack relies heavily on his fastball and slider when facing a right-handed batter like Manny Machado. Machado has a team-high ISO of .280 against the slider. Fifteen of his 29 home runs have come off the fastball or sinker.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: