MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/17)
What values are out there across the Majors today for players to go yard?
Let’s hit some dingers with our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, April 17.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Aaron Judge (+220) & Giancarlo Stanton (+350)
Both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton went deep against Kevin Gausman last week when these two teams faced off. These two giants in the middle of the lineup have a career average of over .300 against the Blue Jays’ starter, and I’d expect that to continue today.
After having one of his best seasons last season, Kevin Gausman is off to a slow start in 2024. He is 0-2 through three starts with an ERA of 11.57, and his HR/9 (2.89) is the second-highest among today’s starters.
Max Muncy (+300)
Using our friends at FantasyPros, Max Muncy has today’s fifth-highest HR projection, and for good reason. Since the start of the 2023 season, Nationals starter Jake Irvin has allowed 22 home runs, 15 of which have come from left-handed hitters.
In 2023, Muncy led the Dodgers in ISO and HRs. He was also fifth in the MLB in ISO (.236) and fourth in HRs (36) among left-handed hitters.
Triston Casas (+440)
Ben Lively is making his team debut with the Cleveland Guardians. Last year didn’t fo very well for the Red.
In 12 starts, Lively went 3-6, with a 5.38 ERA while allowing 17 HRs. His HR/9 of 2.34 would have been the league’s worst among qualified pitchers. Plus, 95% of those HRs came from left-handed hitters, and with the Red Sox potentially having seven LHHs in their lineup, he could be hitting the showers sooner than expected.
No one is hotter in this Boston lineup than Triston Casas; over his last seven games, he is batting .280 while leading the team in hits, home runs and RBI.
Michael Busch (+420)
We are calling a heat check with Michael Busch. Before last night’s 0-4 game, Busch had hit a HR in five straight games. Today, he has another good matchup against righty Brandon Pfaadt.
The Diamondbacks starter had shown flashes of being an elite pitcher late last year and into the postseason, but the long ball still haunts him. After allowing a 2.06 HR/9 in 2023, he’s already allowed three dingers in three starts this season.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: