MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/3)
We have our first full slate of Matinee baseball. Nothing beats Sitting in the office watching Major League baseball. Ten games start before you even get home from work.
I am bringing out the big guns for today’s HR Props. Four of the five players featured finished inside the top 30 in HR last year, and all had 25 or more HRs.
Without further ado, here are our HR contests for April 3.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yordan Alvarez (+250) & Kyle Tucker (+425)
It’s been tough trying to figure out this Astros team early in 2024. They were swept by the Yankees at home, and then bounced back with 10 runs behind Ronel Blanco’s No-hitter to lose 2-1 in extras last night.
Luckily for Houston, they face Chris Bassitt of the Blue Jays. Bassitt struggles against left-handed hitters. Since the start of 2023, Bassitt has allowed 29 home runs, and 22 have been to lefties.
Alvarez and Tucker are two of the better LHHs in the MLB; this provides us with an excellent matchup.
Freddie Freeman (+400) & Mookie Betts (+280)
The Giants are starting leftie Kyle Harrison. He had a promising start last week against the Padres, going six innings and giving up six hits and two runs. The only downside is that both runs came via solo home runs.
Early on in his career, Harrison’s kryptonite has been the long ball, logging a 2.21 HR/9 over 40 innings. Oh, and of his 10 home runs allowed, seven have been to right-handed hitters. There may not be a hotter athlete on this planet than Mookie Betts. He leads the league in hits, runs, HRs, RBO and SLG%.
As for Freddie Freeman, he’s one of the few left-handed hitters who does exceptionally well against opposing left-handed pitchers. Only Kyle Schwarber had more home runs against an LHP as an LHH. Of his 29 HRs, 12 came against a southpaw, so it wouldn’t shock me to see Freeman get his first HR of the year against Harrison.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+340)
Zach Thompson has given up 11 home runs since the start of 2023, 10 of which have been to right-handed hitters. Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts could have been good options as well, but Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to turn on a fastball is much better than either.
Thompson is primarily a fastball pitcher, throwing it 49% of the time to right-handed hitters. His ISO of .268 and wOBA of .437 against fastballs are the best on the team, and his team-high bar/PA (barrels per plate appearance) is at 12.8%.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: