MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (5/1)
What values are out there across the Majors today for players to go yard?
Let’s hit some dingers with our favorite MLB home run prop bets for Wednesday, May 1.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Elly De La Cruz (+540) & Spencer Steer (+600)
Joe Musgrove has been abysmal this season. The right-hander is 3-3 in seven starts with a 6.94 ERA. And that’s not a result of bad luck; his xERA (Expected ERA) is even higher, 7.36. He has a HardHit% of 36.6 %, the highest among today’s starters.
Musgroves’ splits offer great value for Reds’ hitters today. Eight of his nine HRs have been allowed at home, while six have been to right-handed hitters.
Elly De La Cruz has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He leads the team in ISO (.388) against right-handed pitchers. That is the second-highest in all of baseball, trailing only Shohei Ohtani.
Adolis Garcia (+210) & Evan Carter (+390) & Marcus Semien (+420)
Last year, we faded Nationals starter Trevor Williams quite a bit in our HR Props and had success. In 2023, Williams posted a 6-10 record with a 5.55 ERA while allowing 32 HRs. In 2024, he looks like a different pitcher, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA while not allowing a single HR.
After digging in, his opponents were at the bottom of the barrel. Of the opponents he has faced (Miami, Houston, Oakland, San Francisco and Pittsburgh), only the Astros rank inside the top 15 in ISO against right-handed pitchers. Texas ranks eighth in ISO and has the eighth-most HRs (27).
Adolis Garcia and Evan Carter both have an ISO over .280 and five or more HRs against RHP. Marcus Semien is not far behind, with four HRs and a respectable ISO of .185. With facing one of the better offenses in the league, we may see Williams come back down to Earth this afternoon.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: