MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (9/18)
The MLB is back with another full 15-game slate tonight, and we have a few pivotal matchups as the playoff race heats up. From a betting standpoint, I'm heading to the prop sheet, where I've locked in four players, including three in one game, to go yard.
Here are my top four home run prop bets for September 18.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Gunnar Henderson (+600)
Despite being one of the best HR-hitting teams against opposing right-handed pitchers (2nd in the MLB with 162), the Orioles have hit a significant wall over the last two months.
Despite mashing righties all season long, since August 1, they rank 23rd in homers (33), 24th in SLG% (.383), and 16th in ISO (.156).
Today, they get a good matchup against Hayden Birdsong, who has allowed ten home runs in 13 starts and has a HardHit rate of 39.2%, the highest among today’s starters.
After being shut out at home, I love this spot in a buy-low situation for the Orioles.
Gunnar Henderson is starting to heat up again as he has led the Orioles in batting average (.391) since the start of September. He also has a team-high three home runs.
Randy Arozarena (+350) | Julio Rodriguez (+500) | Cal Raleigh (+340)
Seattle is another team we are buying low on after an 11-2 blowout loss to the Yankees.
Lefty Nestor Cortes is on the mound, and while he doesn’t allow much hard contact, he can give up the long ball if he’s not spotting his pitches.
As a team, the Mariners are about league average when facing opposing left-handed pitchers, but the three Mariners we are targeting project exceptionally well.
Randy Arozarena had the most exposure against Cortes during his time in Tampa Bay. In his career, he is 7-for-20, with four hits, including a homer.
Despite a pitiful batting average of .156, Cal Raleigh leads the team in HRs (11) against left-handed pitchers.
Julio’s average of .287 against lefties is a team-high among players with at least 100 at-bats, and his six round-trippers are third-best.