MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Wednesday (9/4)
A whopping 25 teams are averaging at least one home run per game with the 2024 MLB playoff race in full swing. It's a statistic that has provided sports bettors with opportunities to cash an MLB home run prop bet day after day. Here's a look at four sluggers worth backing to drive a ball beyond the fence on Wednesday, September 4.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yordan Alvarez (+230) & Alex Bregman (+420)
We are looking to fade Reds pitcher Nick Martinez, who is set to make his seventh home start of the season against the Houston Astros. I specifically mentioned “home start†because his home/road splits are a bit alarming.
In five road starts, Martinez is 3-2 with a 2.74 ERA, while opponents only hit a measly .195.
On the other hand, in six home starts, Martinez’s ERA jumps to 4.62, while opponents are batting .306.
He allowed eight earned and four home runs over his last three starts at Great American Ballpark.
Now, all three teams (Brewers, Royals, and Giants) rank in the top 15 in HR hit against right-handed pitchers in August. Houston ranks 6th, hitting 33 HRs against righties in August, so it won’t get any easier for Mr. Martinez.
Over the last 15 days, Yordan Alvarez has been batting .386 with an ISO of .318, and the team is high in HRs (4) against right-handed pitchers.
When facing an opposing left-handed hitter like Alvarez, Nick Martinez tends to rely on his fastball, changeup, and cutter. Yordan has an ISO of over .200 on three of those pitches, including an ISO of .441 against the changeup.
Shohei Ohtani (+160) & Max Muncy (+300)
In his chase to become the only 50/50 (50 HRs and 50 steals) player in MLB history, it’s only fitting that Ohtani goes deep in his old ballpark.
Over the last 14 days, Ohtani has hit six HRs, trailing only Willy Adames, and has the 2nd highest ISO (.500), trailing only Giancarlo Stanton against right-handed pitchers. To say he is on fire is an understatement. In fact, this whole Dodgers lineup has been red-hot. Only the Toronto Blue Jays (27) have hit more HRs against righties.
Using FantasyPros Daily Projections, Ohtani has the highest HR projection of the day, while teammate Max Muncy comes in with the 9th highest HR projection.
The Dodgers have averaged just over seven runs per game in their last seven games, and I don’t see that going down anytime soon, especially against a weak Angels pitching staff.