MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks: Friday (Padres vs. Dodgers)
There's nothing better than October baseball, especially when it's a do-or-die atmosphere like it will be on Friday when the Padres (2-2) and Dodgers (2-2) square off in Game 5. The winner books their ticket to the NLCS, where they'll play the Mets in a seven-game series.
First pitch for Game 5 is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. Tonight's pitching matchup features a battle of two Japanese-born hurlers, as Yu Darvish and Yoshinobu Yamamoto go toe-to-toe.
From a sports betting perspective, I'm heading to the prop sheet, where I've narrowed in on two home run prop bets. Here are two players who are primed to touch 'em all in this winner-take-all game in the NLDS.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Manny Machado (+400) & Fernando Tatis Jr. (+330)
Well, let me first start by saying that there's no way I'm fading Yu Darvish in this spot. The veteran pitcher has dominated the Dodgers throughout his career, holding their current lineup to a slash line of .195/.267/.327 over 266 at-bats. Los Angeles' big boppers haven't fared well against Darvish, as Mookie Betts is 8-for-43 (.186) with one home run, Freddie Freeman, who can barely jog, is 10-for-40 (.250) with three home runs, and Shohei Ohtani is 1-for-8 (.125).
The man I'm looking to bet against here is 26-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA, 0.70 HR/9). San Diego has found a lot of success against him over a limited sample size, slashing .371/.450/.657 over 35 at-bats. That's a team OPS of 1.107! Specifically, it's Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. who've led the way. Machado is 2-for-4 (.500) against him with a couple of nukes, while Tatis is a perfect 3-for-3 (1.000) with a double and two singles.
Tatis is on an absolute rampage right now, slashing .500/.577/1.182 in 22 at-bats this postseason. He's cranked four home runs and three doubles in six games played! All of that equates to an inflated 1.759 OPS in the playoffs. As for Machado, he's hitting .200 (5-for-25) this postseason with a home run and a double. I'm riding with both of these Friars to touch 'em all tonight in L.A.
Highest HR/9 Starting Pitchers Today
- Yu Darvish (1.32, 81.2 IP)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto (0.70, 90.0 IP)