MLB Home Run Prop Bet Picks: Mets vs. Brewers (Thursday)
Baseball fans can rejoice because there is a win-or-go-home showdown on Thursday. The New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers split the first two contests of their Wild Card Series, setting up a thrilling rubber match. A spot in a National League Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies is ready for the taking.
Of course, a home run would send a major message in a game of this magnitude. Here's a look at three pros set up to launch a ball beyond the fence on October 3rd.
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Thursday's Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Francisco Lindor (+440)
The Mets’ season was on the line in Monday’s doubleheader versus the Braves. That was when shortstop Francisco Lindor crushed a go-ahead two-run homer to give New York an 8-7 lead in the ninth inning. The four-time All-Star has repeatedly stepped up for manager Carlos Mendoza’s squad this year. Take note that Lindor’s tally of 29 dingers in Mets victories outshines the total of anyone else on the roster.
Not only has Lindor been incredibly clutch, but he has been outstanding on the road. He has slashed an impressive .286/.345/.526 with 20 home runs and 19 doubles across 78 games outside Citi Field. Just five batters in the sport have logged more hits in away contests than Lindor (94). Milwaukee is handing the ball to a rookie in Tobias Myers, who will certainly be on a short leash. Trust Lindor to jump on him early.
Jackson Chourio (+630)
Are you kidding me? Jackson Chourio is only 20 years old and put Milwaukee on his back with a two-homer performance on Wednesday. To dive even deeper, he became the second player in MLB history to smack two game-tying home runs in a playoff clash, according to Opta Sports. The other slugger was Babe Ruth in Game 4 of the 1928 World Series. Chourio is not afraid to walk up to the plate in any situation against any pitcher.
That is the exact opposite of what Mets starting pitcher Jose Quintana wants to hear. Quintana has been tagged for 22 blasts, 16 of which have come from a right-handed hitter. The veteran southpaw has also failed to get through five innings in either of his starts versus the Brewers this campaign. Milwaukee has pounced on him early before, which should be its goal on Thursday. Chourio is dangerous in the leadoff spot.
Willy Adames (+470)
There’s something about playing in front of the Brewers faithful that pumps Willy Adames up. The shortstop has been Milwaukee’s best power source at American Family Field, recording a team-high 18 home runs and a .485 slugging percentage. Keep in mind Adames’ 65 RBI at home trails just Aaron Judge of the Yankees (71) for the highest mark in the Majors. Finding ways to drive in runs has been his greatest strength.
Adames draws a stellar matchup here. He is 5-for-14 with a homer and two doubles in his career against Quintana. If he doesn’t beat Quintana, Adames finished the regular season with a ridiculous .959 OPS and 16 jacks versus relief pitchers. Bettors searching for an intriguing longshot option should take a peek at Adames’ odds of going yard twice once they are released. It’s a feat he has already accomplished three times in 2024.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: