MLB Home Run Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Saturday (6/29)
Here are our best home run prop bets for Saturday’s MLB slate.
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Saturday’s Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets
Brandon Marsh (+600)
Without Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the lineup, someone else needs to step up and produce some runs. With a struggling Roddery Munoz on the mound for the Marlins, this sets up well for Brandon Marsh. Marsh only has seven home runs on the season, but all seven have come against opposing right-handed pitchers.
Munoz throws a variety of pitches (Fastball, Sinker, changeup, Slider, Cutter). Marsh has an ISO over .240 on three of those pitches (Fastball, Slider, and Cutter) and only a Whiff Rate above 25% on the Sinker.
Using FantasyPros Daily Projections, Marsh has the highest HR projection on the Phillies and the 18th highest on today’s slate.
Jordan Westburg (+460) | Gunnar Henderson (+340) | Anthony Santander (+350)
Using players for the Orioles Lineup is a must when they have a matchup against a bad starting pitcher, especially at home. Baltimore has a league-high 73 home runs in their home ballpark, nine more than the next team. It’s safe to say Baltimore enjoys some home-cooking.
Rangers’ starter Michael Lorenzen has given up 10 home runs in 13 starts, including five in his last four starts. Nine of his 10 home runs allowed have been to right-handed hitters.
It’s no surprise Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander are Nos. 1 and 2 on the team in HRs and ISO against right-handed pitchers, but Jordan Westburg is third on the team in ISO (.239) and home runs (9). In fact, FantasyPros has a higher HR projection for Westburg than both Gunnar and Santander
All three of these guys have a K% below 21% when facing a righty. They don’t chase bad pitches and don’t swing and miss very often, giving them an excellent shot at barreling up a ball and making solid contact.
Gunnar has the third-highest SLG% in MLB against RHP, while Westburg is at No. 9, ahead of guys like Bobby Witt, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Ramirez, and Pete Alonso.
I’m expecting a big offensive output from the Orioles tonight. Hopefully, it’ll be led by these three guys!