MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions (7/28)

Today's plays are all about matchups, as each of the offenses that I've selected will be in their worse hitting splits against the opposing starting pitcher. Both ballparks that the games will be played in are unfavorable to hitters in terms of the long ball, ranking well below league average in that department over the last three years. We also have the looming threat of the trade deadline approaching, and three of the four teams in this article could be identified as franchises that are willing to sell (the Pirates just dealt Carlos Santana, in fact), so there's always a possibility of a guy or two not being included in the starting lineup for potential trade purposes.

2023 NRFI (33-30, -2.36 Units)

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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies - No Runs 1st Inning (+100 @ Bet365)

The Pirates will send out Mitch Keller to start tonight, a pitcher who seems to be a candidate for some positive regression because his advanced metrics are pretty significantly better than his 4.01 ERA might lead you to believe. His xERA is 3.70 (66th percentile), and he has been elite at avoiding hard contact, ranking in the 85th percentile in both hard hit% and average exit velo. He ranks just short of the 70th percentile in BB%, and his xBA, xSLG, and K% are all well above the average mark for the league. The Phillies are a pretty well-rounded offense, but they do have lower power numbers against RHP, which will help Keller out in this one as well.

Zack Wheeler is a pitcher that I've frequently targeted in this market due to his dominance on the mound in 2023. Wheeler ranks above the 80th percentile of all pitchers in each of the following categories: average exit velo, xERA (3.27), xSLG, barrel%, BB%, and chase rate. His most recent 50 plate appearances actually suggest that he's getting even better, as his xWOBA continues to trend in the positive direction, significantly better than that of the average pitcher. The Pirates’ offense is one that has struggled for the greater part of this season, ranking bottom-10 in HR, BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and just traded away a potential power threat in Carlos Santana. Additionally, the Pirates have been dreadful against RHP this year, and PNC Park grades out as the fourth-worst HR-hitting environment in the MLB since 202, giving a little bit of extra support to this play.


New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals - No Runs 1st Inning (-115 @ Bet365)

Similar to Justin Verlander, it took Max Scherzer a little while to get back to his dominance this season, but his most recent 50 plate appearances and his advanced numbers suggest that he's back to his old self. His xERA is over 0.50 runs lower than his actual ERA at 3.65, which ranks in the top third of the league. He's still got great command of the strike zone, walking just over 5% of the batters he faces, and the swing and miss component of his game is still great, ranking in the 63rd percentile in chase rate, 67th percentile in whiff% and 73rd percentile in K%. While the Nationals’ lineup might actually not bad as it has been in recent memory, they have been demonstrably worse against RHP than LHP, and I don't expect that to change against one of the most dominant pitchers that we have seen over the past decade.

As I stated in the opening, today's plays are all about matchups, and this one, in particular, is more a fade of the Mets’ offense than it is a backing of Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore. The Mets remain an underwhelming offense, ranking in the bottom half of the league in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG while hitting the 2nd-fewest doubles in all of baseball. Fitting the theme of all the aforementioned teams, the Mets will also be in their worse hitting splits against LHP, where they collectively hit for worse averages and worse power. That being said, Gore still has an extreme amount of talent, being the 3rd overall pick in 2017, and has big-time swing and miss potential, ranking in the top 25% of the league in whiff% and K%. Both pitchers will also get the benefit of pitching at Citi Field, which has graded out second-to-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors via Statcast since 2021.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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