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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/21)

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I'm showing the Southpaws some love on this Friday's set of NRFI plays, as three of the four starting pitchers in the article are lefties. More specifically, Justin Steele of the Cubs and Framber Valdez of the Astros have been 2 of the most dominant LHP in the MLB this season and have been pitchers that I've loved to back in this market all year long. Both guys pitch for teams that have been above the 50% threshold for NRFI success, which is another parameter that I've been putting more weight into as the season has progressed, and both games feature hitting environments that I expect to be more pitcher-friendly than not.

2023 NRFI (31-28, -2.10 Units)

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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Chicago Cubs vs. St Louis Cardinals - No Run 1st Inning (-115 DraftKings & Bet365)

The classic Friday afternoon game at Wrigley Field will feature All-Star lefty Justin Steele of the Cubs taking on Jack Flaherty of the Cardinals. Steele has been tremendous for the Cubs this season, holding a 9-3 record with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, which are backed by some of the best advanced numbers by any pitcher in the MLB. He ranks in the top 25% of pitchers in each of the following statistics: xSLG, barrel%, xERA, chase rate, hard hit%, BB%, and average exit velo, which is essentially everything we're looking for to back a pitcher in an NRFI play. The Cardinals have slightly lower power numbers against LHP, and it looks like the wind will be blowing in at Wrigley Field, which will benefit both pitchers.

Jack Flaherty gets the ball for the Cardinals, who is probably underperforming on the season overall compared to past performances but is still grading out well above average at several different categories that I look for in these plays. His greatest strength this season has been his ability to avoid hard contact, as he ranks 66th percentile in xSLG, 74th percentile in hard hit%, 76th percentile in barrel%, and 83rd percentile in average exit velo. Like the Cardinals’ offense, the Cubs will also be hitting in their worse hitting splits against RHP, and they will also be dealing with the in-blowing wind. This play also involves a Cubs team with an NRFI success rate of 54%, which is good for 8th in the MLB, making me like it even more.

Oakland Athletics vs Houston Astros - No Run 1st Inning (-130 DraftKings, Bet365, Caesars)

Framber Valdez is probably my favorite pitcher to back in these NRFI spots because of his ability to keep the ball on the ground, as I've detailed in previous articles. Valdez ranks 3rd overall in the American League at producing ground balls, which pretty much neutralizes the fact that his average exit velo and hard hit% are extremely poor compared to other pitchers because hard hit balls that stay on the ground tend to get converted into outs. His 5.9% walk rate tells us that he’s not allowing the free pass at a very high rate, and he ranks comfortably above the 60th percentile in K% and whiff%. Oakland ranks dead last in BA, OPS, and SLG and ranks 4th-worst in OBP, so I expect Valdez to easily roll through this lineup in the opening frame.

JP Sears will go for the A's, who has actually been a bright spot on this historically bad baseball team. His record is obviously not great at 1-6 (winning a game as an A's starting pitcher is actually an accomplishment on its own), but his 1.02 WHIP and some other underlying metrics tell the story that he's actually been a pretty rock-solid pitcher. Like the two starters in the first game, Sears is not getting hit all that hard, which is evident by his 65th percentile hard hit% and 71st percentile average exit velo. He's walking batters at a lower rate than Framber Valdez at 5.4%, which is super impressive, and he's generating chases on his pitches in the 81st percentile. If you're going to fade the Astros’ offense, the best time to do it is when they're without Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, and the Astros have actually outpaced the Cubs this year in NRFI success at 55%. Lastly, Oakland Coliseum ranks 4th-lowest in terms of HR rate since the 2021 season, which should help both pitchers keep the ball in the ballpark.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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