MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (6/23)
Friday's slate of games was not the easiest to break down for today's NRFI plays, as there are many poor pitching matchups with high-powered offenses in favorable hitting environments. That being said, I have settled on two picks that I feel really good about featuring underperforming offenses (three of the four rank in the bottom 10 in nearly all offensive statistical categories) that have tended to struggle to put up first-inning runs in 2023 (three of the four rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored in the first inning).
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Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (24-21, -1.38 Units)
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox NRFI (-115 @ DraftKings, BetMGM, Bet365)
I have normally avoided the Red Sox like the plague for these articles because their starting pitching has been a huge question mark this season, but the 24-year-old Brayan Bello has been a huge revelation for that pitching staff. He has a well-above-average fastball with a wicked changeup, and his advanced metrics are floating around the league average. His most recent outings going back to his past 100 batters faced suggest that he's improving, as his xWOBA has been significantly trending in the positive direction. Unlike the Red Sox, the White Sox are a team that I've consistently targeted for NRFI plays due to their lackluster offense; they are in the bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG. They also fare much worse against RHP than they do LHP, so I really like Bello's matchup in this spot against the top of Chicago's batting order.
Lucas Giolito has been as consistent as ever for the White Sox this season, posting a 5-4 record with a 3.54 ERA. His xBA, K%, whiff%, and BB% are all in the top half of the league, and he's around league average in most other advanced statistics. Like Bello, his recent performances have been pretty good and suggest that he's trending in a positive direction. While Boston's offensive numbers look good compared to the rest of the league, they tend to get off to slow starts, ranking 21st in terms of runs scored in the first inning (White Sox rank 26th). They also have relatively equal hitting splits, so they will gain no advantage facing the RHP Giolito. The White Sox also rank in the top 10 in NRFI success at 55%, and I love the matchup for both of the righties in this game to have a clean opening frame.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-120 @ BetMGM)
Veteran LHP Wade Miley has been rock solid for the Brewers this year, going 4-2 so far with a 3.28 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Miley has been excellent at avoiding hard contact, ranking in the 83rd and 88th percentiles in average exit velocity and hard hit%, respectively. He has had great command of the strike zone, walking just over five percent of the batters he faces, and he'll be taking on a Guardians lineup that has really been struggling. Cleveland is a bottom-10 team in OBP, OPS and SLG, and they rank dead last in all of baseball in hitting the long ball. Not surprisingly, they're also a bottom-half team in the league in runs scored in the first inning, and I love the fact that he'll force Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell to flip around to the right-handed batter’s box where they both are much less productive.
Shane Bieber has been an interesting case study this year as he's still been ultra-productive (5-4, 3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) despite the stark regression of most of his advanced metrics, which I won't list here because they aren't pretty. Luckily for Bieber, the numbers put up by the Brewers’ offense have been equally as bad. Milwaukee ranks bottom 10 in OPS, OBP, BA and SLG, and they rank dead last in the MLB in doubles hit. The Brewers have also really struggled at the top of their lineup, as only one batter in their top four is hitting over 0.229. Bieber has pitched much better at home than on the road, going 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA, and Progressive Field has ranked bottom-10 in offensive park factors, and HR hit since 2021. I trust him to get it done in this matchup against a really poor Brewers lineup.
Check out our other best bets for Friday:
- MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
- MLB Odds, Picks, & Predictions for Pitchers
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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