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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/14)

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Although I would ideally like to do better than breaking even, the rule changes implemented before the 2023 season have made the NRFI market a tough one to tackle, and I made some adjustments in my analysis that benefitted my plays down the stretch as we approached the All-Star break. Gathering more data is only beneficial, and I plan to keep learning as the season progresses to gain any advantage in the market that I can. As always, shop for the best prices in this market, because they can vary wildly between different books. Today I'm targeting 2 teams (and pitchers) that I frequently went to in the first half with Justin Verlander of the Mets and Luis Castillo of the Mariners. They'll be facing off against 2 teams that I didn't cover much (or at all) prior to the All-Star break with Julio Urias of the Dodgers and Eduardo Rodriquez of the Tigers, respectively. I love the matchups for all pitchers involved in two very pitcher-friendly ballparks, and I think we have a great opportunity to get off to a hot start in the second half of the season.

Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (30-25, -0.05 Units)

New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - No Runs 1st Inning (-105 @ DraftKings & Bet365)

Verlander will get the first start back from the All-Star break for the Mets in this matchup, and he's continued to look very good in his recent performances after a sluggish start to his season. His xwOBA in his last 50 batters faced has been well above that of the league average and has now climbed up into the 74th percentile for the entire year. His other expected metrics have been very good as well, as his xERA is lower than his actual ERA of 3.60, and both his xBA and xSLG ratings put him in the 60th percentile or above. He ranks in the top quartile of all pitchers in BB%, and the spin rates on both his fastball and curveball rank in the top 20th percentile, so the stuff is absolutely still there. He'll get the huge benefit of pitching at home, where his ERA is nearly three full runs lower than it has been in away starts, in a ballpark that has not been kind to hitters in recent years. Citi Field comes in 4th to last of all ballparks in overall offensive park factors, grading out well below average in terms of XBH (including HR) and well above league average in strikeout rate since 2021.

This is actually the first time I've written up a start involving Julio Urias in 2023, and digging into his numbers tells a different story than his 4.76 ERA might indicate. For starters, his xERA is 0.70 runs lower than his actual ERA, and his WHIP of 1.18 is significantly better than the league average of 1.312. He's also not getting hit hard at all, ranking in the 85th percentile in both average exit velo and hard hit%. His walk rate is the second-lowest of his career at 5.3% (90th percentile), and he's generating chases on pitches outside the strike zone in the 84th percentile. He’ll get to pitch to this Mets lineup in their inferior batting splits against LHP to a lineup that ranks 15th or worse in BA, OPB, OPS, and SLG. I like Urias to have a much better second half than his first half in general because the results simply don't line up with the process, and I think he'll show some significant positive regression.

Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers - No Run 1st Inning (-135 @ BetMGM)

Luis Castillo has been everything the Mariners hoped he would be since acquiring him from the Reds around this time last year, proving to be one of the best aces across the entire MLB. His 2.85 ERA and 1.04 WHIP are outstanding, and they're backed up by his underlying metrics. His xBA, xERA, and chase rate all put him firmly above the 60th percentile. His K% and BB% are both above the 70th percentile and his whiff% grades out at the 88th percentile. Like Verlander, Castillo also has better numbers pitching on his home turf, and despite all the dingers we saw in the Home Run Derby, T-Mobile Park has graded out dead last in offensive park factors since 2021, well below league average in XBH (including HR), and tied for first overall in strikeout rate. He'll also be pitching against one of the worst offenses in baseball, as the Tigers rank 25th or lower in 2B, HR, BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG and actually hit RHP worse than LHP. Castillo should absolutely roll through this lineup all night long.

Eduardo Rodriguez has quietly been one of the most underappreciated pitchers in the league over the last few seasons, and this season has been no exception for the veteran lefty. E-Rod has a sparkling 2.64 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP, and the underlying numbers tell you that this is absolutely no fluke. He does everything well that I look for in an NRFI, starting with the fact that he flat out does not get hit hard; his average exit velo (83rd percentile), hard hit% (90th percentile), xERA (80th percentile), barrel% (75th percentile) and xSLG (71st percentile) are all phenomenal. He doesn't give up the free pass (88th percentile BB%) and generates the swing and miss (65th percentile chase rate, 69th percentile K%). Add all that together with a Seattle offense that ranks bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and I think E-Rod's matchup sets up perfectly to pair with Castillo for the best NRFI opportunity on the board this Friday.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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