Friday's full slate of games offers some pretty intriguing pitching matchups, which led to me narrowing down my NRFI picks to include a few household names in Luis Castillo, Justin Verlander, and Yu Darvish (no offense to Hunter Brown, who looks like he has the pedigree to be included among those names eventually). Both games feature a team who ranks in the top 10 in the MLB in terms of NRFI success in the Astros (55%) and Padres (52%), and 3 of the 4 teams have a success rate of at least 50%, which is more uncommon than not in today's scoring climate. I like the matchups that I've selected for these plays, and I think they both offer a great opportunity to get these tickets to the window.
Record: 2023 NRFI (29-24, +0.08 Units)
Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning Picks
Odds courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners - No Runs 1st Inning (-115 @ Bet365)
Hunter Brown will get the start for the Astros, a hard-throwing young RHP that figures to be a mainstay in this Astros rotation for years to come. Brown's xERA is good for the 62nd percentile and nearly mirrors his actual ERA, suggesting that he's been pitching pretty comparable to his expectations. His underlying advanced metrics are very good, as he ranks above league average in xBA, barrel%, BB%, and chase rate and ranks above the 70th percentile in xSLG and K%. He'll have the advantage of pitching against a Mariners lineup that has really been dragging their feet in 2023, ranking bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, and will actually be in their much worse hitting splits against RHP. I love Brown's matchup here and expect him to roll through the first inning unscathed.
On the other side, the Mariners will send out Luis Castillo, who has continued to be one of the more consistently dominant pitchers in the MLB. Castillo's below 0.500 record is not indicative of the pitcher that he's been, which is more reflected in his 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His BB% and chase rate are among the top 1/3 of all pitchers, he grades above the 70th percentile in xBA and K%, and he ranks in the top 10% of pitchers in terms of whiff%. He'll be dealing against an Astros team that has taken some heavy blows recently at the top of the lineup with injuries to Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, which helps a ton in this NRFI play. The Astros also fare slightly worse against RHP, and Minute Maid Park has ranked in the bottom half of the league in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2021, which makes me like this matchup even more.
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets - No Runs 1st Inning (-115 @ Bet365)
Yu Darvish gets the ball for the Padres in this one, who has been the victim of some really bad luck this season. It's rare to find a pitcher whose xERA is 1.20 full points lower than their actual ERA, but that's precisely the case for Darvish, and his xERA of 3.64 is good for the 66th percentile. Every single one of his advanced pitching metrics grades out above league average besides his average exit velo, which is only slightly lower at the 47th percentile. His xBA, xSLG, K%, and BB% are all solidly above the 60th percentile, and he'll be taking on a Mets lineup that has underperformed relative to expectations, ranking in the bottom half of baseball in BA, OPS, SLG, and OBP and ranking dead last in 2B.
Justin Verlander gets the start for the Mets, who seems to have stabilized his performance after his rocky return from injury, as his metrics over his past 50 batters faced have been stellar. His xERA of 3.61 is good for the 68th percentile, and his xSLG, barrel%, BB%, and chase rate are all above the 60th percentile despite his fastball velo dipping a little bit. The Padres are another head-scratching team offensively, as they have not produced even close to the expectations created by the names up and down their roster, ranking in the bottom half of the league in BA, OPS, SLG, and 2B. They will also be in their worse hitting splits against the righty Verlander, and as I've highlighted before, Petco Park has been historically unfavorable to hitters, ranking 2nd to last in offensive park factors since 2021, ranking well below league average in all XBH and ranking above league average in strikeout rate.
Check out our other best bets for Friday:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- 2023 NBA Summer League Odds, Picks & Predictions
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