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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (6/27)

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Today’s NRFI selections aren’t typically the kind you’ll find in my articles due to some particularly potent offenses. Yet, these plays feature some plus matchups with pitchers that have been performing extremely well as of late.

Each of the four starting pitchers has had an xWOBA that has been much better than the league average, dating back to at least their past 100 plate appearances. Additionally, none of them are pitching in an unfavorable pitching/hitting split. Each game features a team in the top 10 of NRFI success this season (Twins 60%, Astros 54%), which has been increasingly difficult to target in the run-scoring environment that we’re seeing in 2023.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (25-22, -1.51 Units)

Houston Astros vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Pitching matchup: Framber Valdez vs. Jordan Montgomery

*Note – Some sites are claiming starting pitching is TBD, though I’m seeing Jordan Montgomery as the probable Cardinals starter on ESPN; only playing if Montgomery starts for St. Louis*

Jordan Montgomery has been great this season at generating soft contact, ranking in the 70th percentile in average exit velo and hard hit%. He’s continued to have excellent control of the strike zone, ranking in the 81st percentile in BB%. Plus, his xERA of 3.93 is only slightly higher than his actual ERA, suggesting that his numbers have been pretty on par with their expectation. His past 100 plate appearances have been very good, as his xWOBA over that time span has trended to be much better than the league average. He’ll get the added bonus of pitching at Busch Stadium, which has tended to be very pitcher-friendly, ranking in the bottom 10 in overall park factors and HR rate since 2021.

The Astros will be sending out Framber Valdez, who is having yet another phenomenal season and has become a favorite of mine to back in these NRFI spots. Valdez has historically been one of the best in the Bigs at generating ground ball outs. This season has been no different, as he ranks top five in that category. His underlying metrics are terrific, as he ranks well above league average in xERA, xSLG, barrel%, whiff%, K% and BB%. His recent performances suggest that he’s getting even better, as his xWOBA has been trending in the positive direction, dating all the way back to his previous 250 batters faced. The Cardinals will also be in their slightly worse hitting splits against the LHP Valdez, which makes me like him even more in this spot.

Bet: NRFI (-115 via Bet365)

Minnesota Twins vs. Atlanta Braves

Pitching matchup: Joe Ryan vs. Bryce Elder

Bryce Elder has really burst onto the scene for the Braves this season, adding to the terrific young starting pitching options that they can trot out on any given night. Elder’s 5-1 record with a 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are fantastic, and those numbers are backed up by his advanced metrics. His chase rate and xSLG are both above the 60th percentile, and his barrel% and BB% are comfortably above the 70th percentile. Like the two pitchers mentioned previously, Elder’s recent performances have also been really good, as his xWOBA has been well better than the league average, dating over his past 100 batters faced. Minnesota has struggled offensively all season long, ranking bottom 10 in BA, OBP and OPS. They are also currently tied for the eighth fewest amount of times that they have scored a run in the first inning.

While the Braves do boast one of the best all-around rosters in all above baseball, Joe Ryan has flat-out been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this year, and I think he’s got the stuff to have success tonight. Ryan’s 2.43 xERA puts him in the 96th percentile, and his most recent 250 plate appearances have been absolutely outstanding, suggesting that no regression back to the mean has been taking place. His xBA and xSLG rank in the 86th and 87th percentiles, respectively, and he’s missing barrels at the 89th percentile. He’s only walking 4.1% of the batters he faces and generating chases at the 99th percentile, leading to a strikeout rate that puts him in the top 25% of all pitchers. Interestingly, the Braves are demonstrably worse against RHP than LHP, which is another feather in the cap for Ryan in this matchup.

Bet: NRFI (+100 via Bet365 & DraftKings Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out the rest of our best bets for Tuesday:

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