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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (7/25)

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I was actually pretty surprised to see reasonable prices on my two plays for today, as I’m targeting two pitching staffs that have been very familiar with each other over the past few weeks. The Brewers and Reds are playing their 8th game against each other since July 7, and the Twins and Mariners playing their 6th game against each other since July 17. Each game features a starting pitcher that has been analytically dominant, with Pablo Lopez of the Twins and Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and each of those teams ranks in the top 10 at 50% or better in NRFI success rate. I love the familiarity of each pitcher with the opposing side, and I predict good matchups all around for both of these tickets to get to the window.

2023 NRFI (32-29, -2.23 Units)

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners – No Runs First Inning (-115 DraftKings)

Offseason acquisition Pablo Lopez gets the ball for the Twins, a pitcher who I believe has been one of the most unlucky in baseball in 2023 and should be prime for some positive regression. While his 5-6 record and 4.22 ERA don’t seem too bad, his expected numbers actually say that his results should be much better. His xERA is a full run lower at 3.22, and his Statcast metrics jump off the charts and rival some of the most prolific arms in baseball. He ranks above the 70th percentile in average exit velo, hard hit%, xSLG, and whiff%; he ranks above the 80th percentile in xBA, xWOBA, and K%; and he ranks among the best in the game at getting hitters to chase, coming in at the 96th percentile in that category. He’ll be dealing with a Mariners squad with significantly worse hitting splits against RHP and has been unable to find any sort of offensive consistency, ranking in the bottom 10 in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG.

Young RHP George Kirby will start for the Mariners, who has put up a really strong sophomore season with a 3.23 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Kirby might have the best command in all of baseball as he ranks in the 100th percentile in BB%, only walking an absurd 2.3% of all batters that he faces, which is a key contributor to NRFI success. He also generates a lot of chases like Lopez, ranking in the 84th percentile in that department, and his average exit velo, hard hit% and barrel% all rank around league average. Though the Twins’ offense hasn’t been quite as poor as the Mariners, they still rank in the bottom half of baseball in OPS and are a bottom-10 team in BA and OBP. Additionally, the Twins are a top-5 team in terms of NRFI success rate at 56%, which makes me feel even better about this play.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds – No Runs 1st Inning (-115 Caesars)

Corbin Burnes continues to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the game, posting a 3.49 ERA (3.34 xERA is good for the 80th percentile) with a 1.06 WHIP. Much like Pablo Lopez, Burnes’ advanced metrics are up there with the absolute best in nearly every statistic. He ranks above the 70th percentile in barrel%, chase rate, and xBA; he ranks above the 80th percentile in hard hit%, xWOBA, and xSLG; and his average exit velo puts him in the 92nd percentile. These teams have gotten very familiar with one another over the past few weeks, and the Brewers pitching staff has found a way to stimy a young and exciting Reds lineup, as the Reds have only eclipsed three runs scored against the Brewers in 1 out of their previous 7 matchups. I expect things to be no different with Burnes on the hill in this game.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott has had a stellar debut season for the Reds, currently rocking a 2.10 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP – really, really good. He has a smaller sample size to work with than the other pitchers I’m breaking down, but the data that we do have says that his expected metrics are also pretty good. His xSLG is right above league average, while his xERA and xBA are both above the 75th percentile. His K% is in the 72nd percentile, and his walk rate is right around league average. He’ll be facing a Brewers lineup that has been extremely underwhelming and unproductive, ranking in the bottom-10 in 2B, HR, OBP, BA, OPS, and SLG, and will be in their worse hitting splits against the LHP Abbott. The Brewers also rank in the top 10 in terms of NRFI success at 50%, and I think that trend continues in another low-scoring game between these two squads.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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