MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/8)
I usually bring multiple NRFI plays to the table for these articles, but today, in particular, it was very tough to identify multiple spots with favorable matchups that I feel comfortable playing and recommending. So, I have a limited card of only one NRFI market on this Tuesday's slate of games.
That said, this is potentially my favorite NRFI play of the year so far, and I will be playing two units as opposed to my normal one. Both offenses will be in their far inferior hitting splits against the opposing pitcher. Both teams struggle to generate baserunners consistently, and this game will be played in the extremely pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. In addition, these teams also both rank in the top five in the MLB at NRFI success rate this season, giving me even more confidence in this spot.
Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (38-31, +1.09 Units) | Odds courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Pitching Matchup: Sonny Gray vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez chose to exercise his no-trade clause to prevent a move to the Dodgers, so he remained in Detroit, where he's having another fantastic year as the ace of their staff. E-Rod's 2.96 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are both phenomenal, and the underlying metrics suggest that his numbers are by no means a fluke. He ranks above the 60th percentile in chase rate, K% and xBA. He also ranks 70th percentile or better in barrel%, average exit velo, hard hit% and BB%.
In other words, he's not giving up hard contact, and he's not walking batters, which is exactly the combination I look for in these NRFI spots. Add on the fact that the Twins struggle to reach base (20th or worse in both BA and OBP), and they have significantly worse offensive splits against LHP, and this game has all the makings for Rodriguez to go out there and absolutely dominate.
Sonny Gray is having a very nice season of his own with the Twins, holding a 3.18 ERA with an xERA of 3.86 that ranks in the 59th percentile. He also seems to be trending in the positive direction, as his most recent 50 batters faced have seen his xwOBA trend well above league average. Gray has done a great job of missing barrels this season, with his barrel%, whiff% and xSLG all ranking well above league average. Gray will benefit from pitching to perhaps the second-worst offense in all of baseball, as the Tigers rank bottom-five in 2B, HR, BA, OBP, OPS and SLG.
They are also demonstrably worse against RHP than they are against LHP, which is pretty concerning considering how bad their numbers are overall. There's really not much to like about this Detroit offense whatsoever, and Gray should be able to roll through this lineup. As if you needed another reason to take this NRFI play, Comerica Park in Detroit is one of the least hitter-friendly ballparks in the MLB, ranking sixth-worst in overall offensive park factors and dead last in HR since 2021, via Statcast.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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