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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (10/20)

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Both MLB Championship Series continue on Friday. It’s a pivotal Game 5 in a tied series in Arlington, Texas, and a Game 4 in the desert with the Diamondbacks attempting to even that series up.

The latter game will feature both teams employing a bullpen game/opener strategy, and we've seen all the solo home runs that the Phillies have popped this postseason. So I'll be avoiding that game in the No Run First Inning (NRFI) market and sticking to the ALCS matchup between two veteran pitchers who have performed very well these playoffs.

The AL matchup features the lower total by a full run, and both starting pitchers have fared very well against their opposition this year. I think we're in for a lower-scoring Game 5 after the previous two games saw a lot of offense against inferior pitching.

Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bet

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Pithing matchup: Justin Verlander vs. Jordan Montgomery

Jordan Montgomery will earn himself a big paycheck this offseason, parlaying a really solid 2023 regular season campaign into a fantastic postseason. Montgomery's season-long ERA of 3.20 and WHIP of 1.19 are both great, which he achieved by being a solid all-around pitcher.

His hard-hit metrics all graded out above league average, with his average exit velo coming in at the 65th percentile. His ground ball rate was nearly 44%, good for the 57th percentile, and his chase rate of 30% also ranked in the 65th percentile. His walk rate is squarely in the 80th percentile at 6.2%, so he avoids the free pass and has great control of the strike zone.

As good as his regular season was, he's turned it up a notch in the playoffs, allowing only a 4.0 ER through 17.1 IP. In his lone start against the Astros this season in late June, Monty went 6.2 IP and only allowed a single run, striking out six and walking just one batter. I love his matchup against the lefties at the top of the Astros batting order, and I expect him to continue his postseason dominance with another great start on Friday evening.

Justin Verlander will toe the rubber for the Astros in yet another postseason start in what will surely be a Hall of Fame career. Verlander's advanced numbers did take a slight dip this season, but that didn't stop him from posting a 3.22 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP. His xERA of 3.69 and xBA of 0.229 are both firmly in the top third of the league, so even though his numbers dropped slightly, his expected numbers were still really good.

Like Montgomery, he has great control of the strike zone, walking only 6.7% of the batters he faces (76th percentile), and he's still been able to get batters to expand the strike zone with a chase rate in the 73rd percentile. JV has been given the reputation of struggling in the playoffs, which is pretty puzzling considering his career postseason ERA of 3.51 with a WHIP of 1.12, which includes two 5.0+ ERA postseasons at the very beginning of his career with Detroit.

He's been as sharp as ever this postseason, allowing just two earned in the two games that he has started, including a 6.2 IP performance against these very same Rangers. He had one additional start against Texas in the regular season, where he was brilliant, going seven IP and allowing only one earned run. He'll have the splits advantage in this matchup as well, as the Rangers hit lefties much harder than they hit righties this season. I trust JV's track record and dominance against the Rangers this season and am fading the narrative that he chokes in the playoffs.

Bet: NRFI (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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