MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (4/12)
While Friday features a full slate of MLB games, it lacks the high-profile pitching matchups that you might expect just by chance with every team playing.
With that said, there is one game that features an absolute gem of a pitcher's duel with two pretty pathetic offenses on either side that I'm taking for my first No Runs First Inning (NRFI) play of the day. The second game I will be playing contrasts with the first game. Both teams have much more offensive firepower, though I believe that the pitching quality is good enough to navigate a clean first inning. The prices of the plays are reflective of the offensive potential and perceived scoring environments, as the first price is much steeper than the second price.
Still, they are both games that I played for today and identified as my top NRFI spots for Friday, April 12.
Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
2024 NRFI (5-2; +1.04 Units)
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez vs. Tarik Skubal
I had gotten some action on this game yesterday before it was postponed, and I was delighted to see no change in the pitching matchup so that I could write about it today. This game features an ace from both squads, with Tarik Skubal of the Tigers facing off against Pablo Lopez of the Twins.
If you've been following these articles since Opening Day, you know how highly I view Skubal as a pitcher, but I've got no problem breaking it down again. His 2023 campaign was truncated due to injury, but in that limited sample size, he was unquestionably among the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Several of his advanced metrics were north of the 90th percentile of all pitchers, and his xERA of 2.30 was actually in the 100th percentile. He seems to have picked up right where he left off last season, racking up 15 Ks over 12.1 innings pitched, with a WHIP of 0.73 and an xERA at an absurdly low 1.70. The only one of his advanced metrics that isn't at least at the 70th percentile mark is his ground ball %, which is still among the top half of pitchers at 44.8%. Still, he lights up the board in essentially every other category, including hard-hit metrics, swing-and-miss stuff and expected BA.
He'll be up against a Twins lineup that has really struggled to get out of the gate this season, ranking fifth-worst in OBP, third-worst in OPS and SLG, second-worst in HR (a category where they ranked third overall last year) and dead-last in AVG. I like Skubal to continue his hot start against this struggling Minnesota offense today.
Pablo Lopez of the Twins, a pitcher that I consistently backed in this market last season, always seemed to deliver in his half of the inning. Like Skubal, he was a Statcast darling last year, above average in every advanced pitching metric, with several north of the 80th and 90th percentiles. He was especially elite when it came to getting batters to chase, and he was seemingly never hit hard. He has also gotten off to a solid start in his 2024 campaign, with a 0.87 WHIP and 2.84 ERA (3.27 xERA isn't too shabby, either). His hard-hit metrics have taken a slight dip compared to last season, but his chase% still sits in the 94th percentile, and his 29% whiff rate is just shy of the 70th percentile. He also doesn't issue the free pass, walking just 2.1% of the batters he has faced, which is, of course, also among the tops in the MLB.
Lopez gets a Tigers lineup that is undoubtedly bottom-10 in baseball, mirroring the Twins own statistical profile in every category. The cherry on top is that this game will be played in Detroit's Comerica Park, which ranks 23rd overall in offensive ballpark factors and sits 16% below league average in terms of HR rate since 2022.
The price is a little steeper than I usually play, but I have no problem laying it with these pitchers in what figures to be the worst scoring environment on Friday.
Bet: NRFI (-150 via BetMGM)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: Michael King vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yoshinobu Yamamoto seems to have gotten things under control since his first start for the Dodgers in the Korea series, tossing 10 consecutive innings and allowing only five hits while striking out 13 and not surrendering an earned run. That opening start will skew his metrics negatively until we get enough data for it to correct itself, but his Statcast still suggests that his swing-and-miss stuff is already elite, with a whiff% and K% that both rank above the 80th percentile. His ground ball rate of 50% puts him in the top third of pitchers, as does his walk rate of 6.4%. His xERA (3.22) and xBA (0.220) also suggest that things are trending in the right direction for Yamamoto, as he was likely a bit unlucky in that first start.
Although the Padres’ offense has been nothing to scoff at so far, I think their numbers are also slightly boosted by that massive offensive performance in South Korea. I like that Yamamoto has already seen the Padres lineup once, and I think he makes the necessary adjustments to have a much better start this time around.
Fading the Dodgers’ offense is never a fun endeavor, especially in the first inning with all that firepower at the head of the lineup, but I think Padres RHP Michael King has the stuff to get through it. King, a very successful reliever/long man for the Yankees for many years, is now finally getting his chance as a starter in San Diego. His 2023 numbers were very good, with a 2.75 ERA. He also had an xERA of 3.48 and an xBA of 0.227, which were both above the 70th percentile. He did an awesome job of avoiding hard contact, with a hard-hit% and average exit velocity that were both north of the 80th percentile. His K% was also just shy of the 90th percentile at 29.5%. His numbers have admittedly dropped a bit this season as he has transitioned to a starting pitcher. However, I think his former role as a reliever serves him very well in the first inning against the best hitters that the Dodgers have. King is no stranger to high-leverage spots, and I trust him to get it done against one of the better offenses in the MLB.
Bet: NRFI (-111 via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: