MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (4/19)
I'm bringing another two-pack of picks to the plate in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market this Friday, highlighting a few pitchers that I have not yet backed this season but are underrated across the market in general for different reasons.
I am, however, sticking to the consistent theme of fading underwhelming offenses, even though some of these teams have the sluggers and star power to suggest that they should be having much better offensive performances. St. Louis vs. Milwaukee was just left off the card for me today because while I love backing Freddy Peralta, I don't trust Kyle Gibson to record a clean first inning.
Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of bet365 | 2024 NRFI (6-4; +0.40 Units)
Chicago White Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Spencer Turnbull
Early returns on the addition of Spencer Turnbull to this Phillies rotation have been fantastic. Turnbull is posting some of the best numbers of his career in nearly every category. Turnbull's 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP are both excellent. While his advanced numbers aren't quite that low, they don't suggest that he's egregiously been overperforming. He ranks in the top 1/3 of pitchers in xERA at 3.40. He's also done an excellent job of avoiding damage, keeping the ball on the ground at a 48.7% clip, with a barrel% of 5.1% that also ranks in the top 1/3 of pitchers and an average exit velocity that sits in the 83rd percentile. His K% is also the highest of his career by far at 26.2%, which is good for the 68th percentile of all pitchers.
Turnbull should face little resistance against this abysmal White Sox offense that trots out Minor League lineups on a nightly basis, ranking either dead-last or second to last in nearly every meaningful offensive category.
Garrett Crochet has been the lone bright spot in the Southside in his first season as a full-time starting pitcher, lighting up his Statcast page in nearly every advanced metric. He ranks above the 70th percentile in both barrel% and chase%, above the 80th percentile in walk rate and fastball velocity, and above the 90th percentile in xERA (1.90), xBA (0.173), whiff% and K%. Despite the stars at the top of their batting order, the Phillies have gotten off to a rocky start offensively, ranking in the bottom half of baseball in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. I also like the fact that the Crochet will be going up against the power lefty hitters Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper as a lefty himself.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Joe Ryan
Joe Ryan tailed off a bit down the stretch for the Twins after his torrent start to the 2023 season, but he seems to have regained the form that we saw prior to the All-Star break last year. His 2.60 ERA and 0.92 WHIP are both excellent and supported by his xERA of 2.15 and his xBA of 0.180, which are both absolutely elite. He's also been one of the best strikeout artists in the MLB this year, ranking above the 90th percentile in both K% and chase% with a walk rate of only 2.9%.
Though the Tigers’ offense does seem to be improved from last year, with numbers slightly nerfed due to early spring games in Detroit, they still rank comfortably in the bottom-10 of baseball in AVG, OBP, OPS, SLG and HR.
Jack Flaherty has had a very nice beginning to his season for the Tigers, which is refreshing to see after some injuries and poor performances resulted in some unpleasant years in St. Louis. Flaherty's xERA of 3.86 is over a full run lower than his actual ERA of 4.91, so he has likely been on the receiving end of some pretty unfortunate luck early in the year. He has done a really nice job of avoiding hard contact, ranking above the 70th percentile in average exit velocity and above the 80th percentile in hard-hit%. His whiff% sits just shy of the 90th percentile at 34.1%, and he has issued a free pass to only 3.8% of the batters he has faced.
While the Twins have dealt with some injuries to their lineup in the early going, their offensive numbers are downright concerning for a team that mashed the most HRs in the AL last year. This season, they rank bottom-five in HR, OBP, OPS and SLG, with the worst AVG in the entire league. Though Target Field plays pretty average in terms of overall offensive factors, it ranks among the league’s top with a strikeout rate that comes in 9% above the average of all other ballparks.
Bet: NRFI (-115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: