MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (5/3)
Another two-pack of No-Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays are coming your way on this Friday's slate of MLB games, including a little mid-day action from Wrigley Field to give you something to sweat toward the end of your work week. That game features an interesting matchup between an opener and a pitcher primed for some positive regression with a key offensive piece missing, which I think adds up perfectly for an afternoon of MLB NRFI plays.
The latter game features a pretty underrated pitching matchup with a price I couldn't believe, as I expected it to be juiced roughly 20-30 more cents in the MLB NRFI direction. Get on these lines early, as I expect them to become more juiced as the day goes on.
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 MLB NRFI Record: 11-7 (+1.00 Units)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Hayden Wesneski vs. Joe Ross
The Cubs are employing the opener strategy for this Friday’s matinee, electing to start right-handed reliever Hayden Wesneski against the Brewers. Wesneski has admittedly had a small sample size on the year, as this will be just his fourth appearance and second start in 2024, but he's been terrific in his limited time.
His xERA of 1.45 and xBA of 0.178 are both elite, and his barrel% sits just north of 3% with an average exit velocity of 81.1 miles per hour (MPH), which are both outstanding. He's walked fewer than 3% of the batters he has faced and has induced ground balls at over a 50% clip, which is again among the best in the league. Fading the Brewers’ lineup has been a risky proposition this season as they are much improved from years prior, but I like Wesneski to give the Brewers a different look in the opening frame and build on his terrific start.
The Brewers will be going with a more conventional starter this afternoon, with right-hander Joe Ross getting the start. Ross' numbers suggest he is in for some serious positive regression, as his 5.40 ERA and 1.68 WHIP are not nearly indicative of the pitcher he has been. His xERA is nearly two full runs lower at 3.51, which is almost unheard of, and his xBA of 0.234 is comfortably within the top half of pitchers.
His average exit velocity of 87.2 qualifies for the top 25% of pitchers, and his whiff% and ground ball% both sit north of the 60th percentile. He's around average in nearly every other underlying metric except for K%. It seems he's been on the receiving end of some pretty poor luck when it comes to batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
The Cubs have been pretty middling on the offensive side this year, although they are currently without the services of lefty slugger Cody Bellinger, which is an added boost for this play. Lastly, while Wrigley Field plays slightly above average regarding overall offensive ballpark factors, it grades out below average in terms of doubles and home runs rate since 2022.
Play: NRFI (-132 @ FanDuel)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs. Jordan Hicks
Former perennial Cy Young candidate Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies tonight. He boasts a stellar 4-1 record with a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. While his advanced numbers suggest he's regressed a bit from years prior, his chase rate is still in the 80th percentile at a phenomenal 32%.
He has done a good job of controlling the strike zone and not issuing free passes, with a walk rate of 7% (65th percentile). His ground ball% of 45.5% puts him in the 60th percentile. He'll be up against a relatively underwhelming lineup in this matchup, as the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, slugging and home runs. They also draw walks at a bottom-10 rate. I don't foresee Nola having issues finding the strike zone in the opening frame. Nola is a guy you can trust to get it done nightly, especially against a sub-par offense like San Francisco's.
On the other side, the Giants will send out right-handed flamethrower Jordan Hicks to make his seventh start of the season in his conversion from reliever to starting pitcher. The Hicks experiment has been a resounding success so far, to the tune of a 1.59 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His underlying metrics back those numbers up - xERA of 2.59 and xBA of 0.200 (both over the 85th percentile).
He doesn't generate a ton of swings and misses, but he has been a savant when it comes to avoiding dangerous contact. His barrel% and average exit velocity are north of the 60th percentile, his hard-hit% comes in at the 73rd percentile and his ground ball rate of 58.9% is good for the 93rd percentile. In other words, he doesn't get hit hard very often, but when he does, it's almost always on the ground. The Phillies lineup is certainly nothing to scoff at and Citizens Bank Park is an overall favorable hitting environment, giving us a better price to back two phenomenal pitchers in this matchup.
Play: NRFI (-115 @ Bet365)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: