MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (9/13)
A third of tonight's games have a team that has yet to decide on a starting pitcher. As such, I have just two No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays for Friday's slate of MLB games. The picks I do have I feel very strongly about, though, with one game featuring two bottom-half offenses playing out the string until the end of the season and the second game featuring two big-name pitchers in a very unfriendly hitting environment. Two out of these four pitchers were All-Stars this season, though I think it can easily be argued a third should've been. With a large percentage of the betting world focused on football, let's look to end this MLB season on a high note.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI: 54-45 (+1.27 Units)
Chicago White Sox vs. Oakland A’s
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Brady Basso
Garrett Crochet takes the mound for the White Sox tonight, with a 3.80 ERA that honestly isn't even close to indicative of how good he's been this year. On another team, Crochet would likely have some Cy Young considerations, but his 91st percentile xERA of 2.94 and 89th percentile xBA of 0.208 are completely lost on this team. Crochet's swing-and-miss stuff is among the best in baseball, with a chase%, K% and whiff% that all grade out above the 90th percentile. He has great command, with an 83rd percentile BB% and he ranks above the 66th percentile in both average exit velocity and ground ball rate. Crochet faces an A's lineup ranked 18th in OPS and 25th in both batting average (AVG) and on-base percentage (OBP) this season, so I expect him to have a dominant performance this evening.
The A's will send their own southpaw out to the bump tonight in rookie Brady Basso. We haven't seen much from Basso this year, making only his fifth appearance and second start, but what we have seen has been good. He holds a 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, allowing two earned runs in just one of his outings. He doesn't have a large enough sample size to rank him among the other pitchers in baseball, but his 3.61 xERA would grade out comfortably above league average with an average exit velocity and whiff% approaching the 90th percentile. He also has excellent command, with a walk rate under 3%. Basso has a great matchup tonight against a White Sox team that can't wait for this season to come to a close, as they rank dead last in every offensive category aside from AVG and also see their numbers drop against lefties.
Pick: NRFI (-120 @ BetMGM)
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Dylan Cease
Logan Webb has been a model of consistency for this Giants rotation over the past 4-5 years, headlining their starters with a very solid 3.46 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Webb is not a hard thrower, yet manages to make batters chase his pitches in the 88th percentile. His calling card is his ability to keep the ball out of the air, though, as his 57.4% ground ball rate puts him in the 95th percentile. He also has great command of the strike zone, ranking in the 82nd percentile in BB%. Webb has also been a much better pitcher in the friendly confines of Oracle Park, holding a 2.67 ERA and opponents to a .227 AVG at home as opposed to a 4.30 and .289 on the road. The Padres’ lineup he goes up against is a good one, but I love his home splits in this matchup in a ballpark that ranks fifth-worst in overall offensive ballpark factors and dead last in home run rate since 2022.
Webb will face off against Dylan Cease, who is having another great season and maintaining his reputation as one of the top strikeout artists in the game. Cease's xERA of 3.38 significantly outperforms his 3.71 actual ERA, and his 85th percentile xBA of 0.213 is pretty on par with his 1.09 WHIP. He ranks above the 90th percentile in both whiff% and K%, with a chase% that puts him comfortably within the 60th percentile. He's done a nice job of limiting damage as well, ranking above league average in terms of average exit velocity and ranking in the 60th percentile in hard-hit%. Cease faces a middling Giants lineup that ranks in the bottom half of baseball in home runs, AVG, OBP, OPS and slugging rate (SLG). They will also be in their worst hitting splits against Cease, as their numbers significantly drop against righties.
Pick: NRFI (-140 @ Bet365)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: