MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (9/20)
I have three picks on my card in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market for Friday's full slate of MLB games, fading a handful of bottom-10 offenses and backing some really strong starting pitchers.
With the season winding down, teams are working back in pitchers who have been injured for the majority of the season, a couple of which I have highlighted in this article. As teams clinch different postseason berths, they might also be inclined to give some of their regular starters a day off to gear up for the playoffs. This is something to keep in mind, not just for the NRFI market but for betting these last couple of weeks of baseball in general.
That said, let's get these tickets to the window and end the season on a high note.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Wednesday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI (55-48; +0.19 Units)
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: George Kirby vs. Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom returns to the mound for just the second time this season, ironically against the same Mariners squad that he made his season debut against. deGrom was sharp in that outing, tossing 3.2 innings while allowing four hits, no earned runs and striking out four batters. There isn't a large enough sample size to compare deGrom to the rest of the pitchers in the league this season. However, what we've seen out of deGrom over the past six seasons puts him well above the 90th percentile in nearly every advanced statistical category.
He has an excellent matchup tonight against a Mariners team that will have their offense to blame should they not make the playoffs. They rank 24th or worse in OPS and SLG, with the league's worst AVG and the most Ks.
George Kirby will take the opposing mound at the tail end of a really strong season for the Mariners’ right-hander. Kirby holds a 3.62 ERA, bested by his 73rd percentile xERA of 3.48. Like the other pitchers in the Mariners’ rotation, Kirby has exceptional command, with a 99th percentile walk rate of just 3.0%. He's been really good at limiting hard contact, with a hard-hit% in the 72nd percentile, and his chase rate qualifies for the 86th percentile.
Kirby will face a Rangers lineup that has been disappointing, as they rank 21st or worse in HR, AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG.
Bet: NRFI (-138 via FanDuel)
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Justin Verlander
The cliff might have finally come for Astros veteran RHP Justin Verlander, as he's having one of his worst seasons in the past decade. Still, I find this to be a very favorable matchup against the Angels tonight. The Angels have been dreadful offensively, ranking 22nd in HR and 27th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. Their numbers also decline against RHP, which is another feather in the cap for Verlander. Additionally, there are reasons to believe that Verlander has been a bit unlucky, as his xERA is 1.19 runs lower than his actual ERA. He also has an 86th percentile hard-hit% with an average exit velocity and barrel% that rank right around league average.
Angels soft-tossing lefty Tyler Anderson is one of the only bright spots for the Halos in this wasted season. Their lone All-Star, Anderson, has a 3.60 ERA that he's achieved primarily by limiting hard contact. His hard-hit% puts him in the 94th percentile, and his average exit velocity falls just shy of the 90th percentile. He's also surprisingly been able to generate the swing-and-miss despite not throwing particularly hard, with a 64th percentile chase rate and 70th percentile whiff%.
There's not much to pick at in terms of this Astros offense, but I trust Anderson to keep the ball out of harm's way in the opening frame.
Bet: NRFI (-105 via Bet365)
Chicago White Sox @ San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Joe Musgrove @ Garrett Crochet
Another injury-shortened season has limited Joe Musgrove's ability to perform at his highest level, but the Padres’ righty draws the easiest matchup on the board tonight against one of the worst teams in the history of the MLB. The White Sox are tied for last in AVG and dead last in HR, OBP, OPS and SLG. I do not expect anything at all from them offensively, and Musgrove should roll all night long.
For as good as Garrett Crochet has been this season, he's surprisingly let me down in a few of these NRFI spots that I've targeted him for. Still, I'm returning to the well at least once more with him this season. Crochet's 3.78 ERA is even better when you consider his 89th percentile xERA of 2.95, and his 1.09 WHIP is backed by his 88th percentile xBA of 0.209. Crochet's swing-and-miss stuff is elite, grading out above the 90th percentile in chase%, whiff% and K%. He also has an excellent command of the strike zone with a BB% in the 85th percentile.
While this Padres lineup has been among the most productive in baseball this year, Crochet holds a very important splits advantage in this game. The Padres’ offensive numbers absolutely fall off a cliff against left-handed pitching, which is why I feel comfortable backing Crochet in this spot.
Bet: NRFI (-130 via Caesars)