MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Friday (9/27)
Full transparency, I don't love tonight's MLB slate from a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting perspective. Currently, one-third of the games involve a team that has yet to name a starting pitcher. Add in seven other games I qualify as unimportant in terms of securing postseason berths or division titles. That adds up to 12 out of the 15 games with teams that either have questionable motivation or no listed starting pitcher. We also have Hurricane Helene drastically impacting playing conditions for games taking place in the south and east United States, which throws yet another wrench into the mix.
After five straight winners, there's no need to force anything on the final Friday of the regular season, so I have just one play to bring to the table this evening. The motivation is there for both teams, though the weather situation might not be. I think we're getting a slight discount because of the perception of both offenses. I'll be playing this for a full unit.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI: 60-48 (+2.20 Units)
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Brady Singer
Let me first break down the postseason implications for both sides and then I'll get into the matchup. Kansas City is currently tied with Detroit (talk about a fun story) for the final two American League Wild Card spots, with the Twins (talk about a collapse) currently trailing both teams by three games. With three games remaining for each team, the magic number to secure a playoff berth is one for both the Tigers (who play the 120-loss white sox) and the Royals.
The Braves, on the other hand, trail both the Mets and the Diamondbacks by one game for the final Wild Card spot, though their situation is much messier and will likely be settled with a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday. Either way, a win is imperative for both teams in this situation, so motivation should be there. I'm confident in the lineup we will see from both sides.
Max Fried will get the start for the Braves, at the tail end of what has been yet another really strong season for the veteran lefty. Though his 3.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP (which are both very solid, by the way) are slightly elevated compared to years previous, his underlying metrics say his ability to avoid hard contact has been up there with the best in the game. Fried has an 82nd percentile hard-hit%, an 88th percentile barrel% and a 96th percentile average exit velocity. To top it all off, his 96th percentile ground ball rate of 59.5% tells us that even if batters are squaring him up, they're hitting the ball on the ground at one of the highest rates in the league.
While the Royals have certainly outperformed their offensive expectations this season, Fried holds a couple of key advantages tonight. First, the Royals hit right-handers better than they hit left-handers, including American League MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., who has a righty-righty splits advantage. Additionally, the Royals have seen their numbers significantly drop outside of the confines of Kauffman Stadium, which is a huge advantage for Fried and the Braves.
The Royals will counter with fifth-year righty Brady Singer, who may be making the biggest start of his career. While his underlying stats aren't quite as spectacular as Fried's, his swing-and-miss metrics as well as his barrel% and average exit velocity all put him around league average. Similar to Fried, his calling card is his ability to keep the ball out of the air, with a ground ball rate that falls just shy of the 80th percentile at 48%.
Singer faces a Braves team I've faded way more often than I intended to this season, as they rank outside the top 10 in batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging rate (SLG). Singer also holds very similar splits advantages tonight, as the Braves have significantly worse offensive numbers against righties and see their power numbers take a slight dip at home. I expect both pitchers to have early success tonight against offenses with increased pressure in a must-win game.
Pick: NRFI (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: