Navigate

MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (10/14)

by |

The American League Championship Series (ALCS) and the National League Championship Series (NLCS) are both in action on Monday. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets in Game 2, while the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1.

The Dodgers have not yet named a starting pitcher for Monday. Manager Dave Roberts said it would be a bullpen game for Los Angeles. Without knowing who will be on the mound, it is hard to say how much faith I have in a No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bet for that game. However, not all hope is lost for NRFI enthusiasts.

Below is an alternate way to make an NRFI bet for Monday, October 14.

Join our new MLB Betting Group to share bets and compete in leaderboards >>

Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Pick

(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)

New York Mets (+115) at Los Angeles Dodgers (-136) | O/U 8.5 (-106/-115)

Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. TBD

Cleveland Guardians (+138) at New York Yankees (-165) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-109)

Starting Pitchers: Alex Cobb vs. Carlos Rodon

This is going to be a combo bet containing both games. I am betting on neither the Los Angeles Dodgers nor Cleveland Guardians to score a first-inning run on Monday.

Not all sportsbooks have markets for individual teams to score in the first inning. DraftKings Sportsbook usually does, but they have not yet posted these lines for Monday. They usually have fair pricing in these markets. For now, the best price on this bet is at BetRivers.

Sean Manaea was 26-6 to the NRFI in the regular season this year. That includes a 1-2-3 inning against the Dodgers back in April. Manaea held the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to a 1-for-8 mark in that game.

His lifetime numbers against those particular hitters are admittedly not great. However, Manaea has been a different pitcher this year because of an altered pitch mix. The left-hander is throwing a sinker or sweeper on 64% of his pitches this season. That number was 12.8% last year and 10.8% in 2022.

The sinker is much improved from the one Manaea offered up earlier in his career when he was pitching in Oakland. Opposing hitters are batting just .201 against Manaea's sinker this year, compared to .275 in 2021 and .301 in 2020. I believe this new and improved version of Manaea can keep the Dodgers off the scoreboard in the first inning on Monday.

I am not taking the traditional NRFI in the game between Cleveland and the New York Yankees because I do not trust Guardians starter Alex Cobb. He is only 2-2 to the NRFI including the playoffs. He also has a very poor track record against the top of the Yankees' lineup.

The combination of Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto and Aaron Judge is 13-for-32 lifetime against Cobb. That includes two doubles and five home runs.

However, Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has been a more reliable NRFI performer. Rodon is 11-4 to the NRFI, including the playoffs, when pitching at Yankee Stadium this season. That includes his last game, where he struck out the side in order against the Kansas City Royals.

Rodon also has a solid track record against Cleveland's hitters. He has held the combination of Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas to a lifetime mark of 3-for-17, including zero walks and five strikeouts.

The Yankees left-hander has the most history with Guardians star Jose Ramirez. Rodon has gotten the better of Ramirez more often than not. Ramirez is 10-for-43 (.233) in his career versus Rodon. Ramirez has walked seven times against Rodon, but he has also yet to homer. Rodon seems to be able to know when to go after Ramirez and when to pitch around him.

Ultimately, I think Rodon can navigate Ramirez and the rest of Cleveland's lineup long enough to log a scoreless first inning of his own.

Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers NRFI/Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-127 at BetRivers Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App