MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (10/7)
We have Game 2 of each American League Division Series (ALDS) on tap for Monday. The top two seeds — the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians — look to go up 2-0 in their respective series.
All four starting pitchers on Monday are left-handed pitchers. That renders a fair amount of recent overall hitting statistics moot. For example, Cleveland has not faced a left-handed starter since August. New York has only faced three in the last 30 days.
Here is my No Runs First Inning (NRFI) pick for Monday, October 7.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet – Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified | Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers (-130) at Cleveland Guardians (+110) | O/U 6 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Matthew Boyd
I am going with the early game and taking the Tigers and Guardians to get us our Monday NRFI. This is currently -150 at Caesars Sportsbook. I have seen it as high as -180 elsewhere. Everyone has different thresholds for what they are willing to pay. I probably would let it sit at -180, but -150 is a fair enough price for me to play this.
Matthew Boyd faces the team for which he has spent most of his professional career. Boyd was traded to Detroit in 2015 and spent the next seven seasons in the Motor City. After being traded to Seattle in 2022, he joined the Tigers again last season via free agency before signing with Cleveland in June of this year.
Boyd went 7-1 to the NRFI this season, including a perfect 4-0 record at Progressive Field. Because Boyd spent so much time in Detroit, there is no batter vs. pitcher data. Riley Greene is the only hitter Boyd has faced. Boyd retired Greene in their only matchup.
Greene will likely hit third for Detroit behind Matt Vierling and Justyn-Henry Malloy. Boyd’s arsenal gives him an advantage over Detroit’s two right-handers.
Vierling had a -8 run-value versus fastballs and a -3 mark against changeups this season. Those two pitches comprise over 70% of Boyd’s arsenal against righties. Malloy is a patient hitter but has 21 strikeouts in 48 at-bats versus left-handed pitchers. He also has an expected batting average (xBA) of .171 or worse against non-fastball offerings thrown by lefties.
Greene had a breakout season but struggles mightily versus left-handers. He hit .213 with a 29.6% strikeout rate and a 5.9% walk rate against lefties this year. That includes a 10-for-60 mark with 23 strikeouts against non-fastballs.
I think Boyd gets this game started on the right foot and holds his former club scoreless in the first inning.
It may be a bit simplistic to say that the other side of this NRFI equation relies on the matchup between Tarik Skubal and Jose Ramirez. But it certainly feels that way.
Ramirez is 9-for-21 in his career against Skubal. The rest of Cleveland’s lineup has combined for an 8-for-41 mark with zero extra-base hits, two walks and 12 strikeouts against the likely winner of this year’s American League Cy Young Award.
Skubal cruised to a 1-2-3 first inning in his only previous meeting with Cleveland this year, ending the inning by inducing a flyout from Ramirez.
Ultimately, Skubal has been too good for me to fade here. He enters this game with a 17.1-inning scoreless streak and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball all year long. Despite his struggles with Ramirez, I expect him to match Boyd’s scoreless first frame with one of his own.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-150)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: